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I’m finding the Romney-Gingrich battle for the Republican nomination absolutely engrossing because it looks as though it could be very tight. On the betting markets punters have yet to digest the full impact of the Gingrich surge and the Cain withdrawal. The ex-governor of Massachusetts, Romney, is trading at slightly longer than evens on Betfair. Everything could change on January 3rd with the Iowa caucuses. Whatever the race is going to be another intriguing one for political punters. Have a…

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Is the PM trying to please too many on the issue? There’s an old saying that if you can’t rise two horses at the same time then you shouldn’t be in the circus. I bet Dave on the EU wishes he only had to satisfy two factions. Instead he’s got the main leaders of the EU countries as they try to sort out their crisis while at the same time he’s trying to deal with the demands of his increasingly…

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Has Osborne got the bottle to ditch Dave’s pledge? Cast your mind back to the last of the TV debates just a week before the 2010 general election. Dave was put on the spot about pensioners perks which had been the subject of a Labour scare campaign. Would the Tories really scrap them? These include the winter fuel payment, free bus passes which 9 million of us have and free TV licences for all households where there’s somebody over the…

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Can he face down his party’s EU sceptics? With all the signs that the PM is planning to face down the Tory Euro-sectpics could Dave be facing a dangerous period as the French and the Germans agree measures that they hope will bring stability to the Euro-zone. There are pitfalls almost everywhere. In the coming negotiations there’ll be an expectation back home that Dave can “repatriate” some of the powers that Brussels now has and the Cameron should use what…

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Gallup survey Acceptable nominee Not acceptable Not sure Newt Gingrich 62 34 4 Mitt Romney 54 41 5 Rick Perry 41 52 7 Michelle Bachmann 37 56 7 Herman Cain 37 58 6 Ron Paul 34 62 4 Jon Huntsman 28 58 14 Rick Santorum 27 62 11 Just Newt & Mitt “acceptable” to majority of GOP With just four weeks to go before Iowa becomes the first state to decide its choice for the Republican White House nomination there’s…

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Welcome again to the cafe where PB’s informal overnight conversation takes place. If you’ve not posted before then please join in. Have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Guardian Is Jackie Ashley right in her assessment? On the Guardian’s Comment is Free pages Jackie Ashley has provoked a largely hostile response to her suggestion that if an In/Out EU referendum happened now then the vote would be to remain. She concludes:” What is crystal clear right now is that, offered the chance of a still bleaker future outside the EU entirely, a large majority of British voters would shudder and say: you must be joking. Eurosceptics, beware what…

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BBC News Has Vladimir Putin had his wings clipped? The big world political news overnight has been the dramatic reduction in the vote for Vladimir Putin’s party in the Russian general election. With 75% of the vote counted his United Russia party had just on 50% of the overall vote according to the Central Election Commission. That compares with the final total of 64% four years ago. The news comes amidst a rising number of complaints about election violations, A…

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