New Gallup poll underlines that it’s now a 2 horse race

New Gallup poll underlines that it’s now a 2 horse race

Gallup survey Acceptable nominee Not acceptable Not sure
Newt Gingrich 62 34 4
Mitt Romney 54 41 5
Rick Perry 41 52 7
Michelle Bachmann 37 56 7
Herman Cain 37 58 6
Ron Paul 34 62 4
Jon Huntsman 28 58 14
Rick Santorum 27 62 11

Just Newt & Mitt “acceptable” to majority of GOP

With just four weeks to go before Iowa becomes the first state to decide its choice for the Republican White House nomination there’s a new telephone poll out from Gallup featuring a question that has not be seen in this campaign before.

Instead of finding out who respondees would vote for the pollster asked: ” Please tell me if you would find XXXX to be an acceptable nominee for president from the Republican Party, or not.”

This approach shows that only Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich would be acceptable to most Republicans. All other candidates, as can be seen from the table, are seen as unacceptable by half or more of potential party voters.

The fact that this appears to be down to just two is arguably not good for Romney. His main strength up until now has been that opposition to him has been split amongst a range of candidates

The main numbers in the poll are also very good for the ex-house speaker and he has a clear margin over the ex-governor of Massachusetts. Newt’s big challenge is that until now he hasn’t had the organisation or resources to match the ultra-slick Romney operation.

The detail of the poll has Gingrich well ahead amongst those describing themselves as “Tea Party” supporters. Amongst “Moderate/Liberal” Republicans Romney has a three point lead.

There’s also an age gap amongst supporters. The 68 year old Newt has a much bigger lead amongst the over-55s.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

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