..Marf gives her view The massive challenge for the campaigns in Iowa is ensuring that as many as their supporters as possible are at the venues for the caucus meetings in time for the 7pm local time start. There’s very little time to carry out a round up and so much depends on the early work that they’ve done. Who knows what the outcome will be but one things for sure – the fight for the Republican party nomination will…
PB 2012 competition predictions now out Mitt Romney is headed for a win in today’s GOP caucuses in the Hawkeye State, will win the New Hampshire primary and the Republican presidential nomination – but will then lose to Barack Obama in the battle for the White House in November, according to the findings from the Politicalbetting 2012 Prediction Competition. Rick Santorum is seen as the leading “not-Romney†candidate – but trails by a country mile in predictions for the eventual…
BBC Will it be his day in Iowa? We are here at last – January 3rd the day of the Iowa caucuses which is the first step in the process of the US choosing its next president. Tonight at 7pm Iowa time tens of thousands of ordinary voters will be attending caucus meetings at more than 1,700 venues throughout the state. It will be the aggregate of votes taken at those meetings which will be the “result”. We should start…
Could the demos start to have an impact? Ladbrokes have put up a market this afternoon offering 4/1 against Vladimir Putin failing to become president in the elections scheduled for March. It’s just a month since Russia’s general election when there were widespread allegations of ballot rigging. This prompted demonstrations on a scale that has not not been seen there for decades and put into question the outcome of March’s presidential election. Could it be that the storm that’s been…
Could Mitt really be pipped at the post? I can’t recall a survey in recent times that has been scrutinised as much as the one by the respected US pollster, Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register. What sets it apart is Selzer’s track record, the scale of the phone survey and the effort to only to count those most likely to take part in tomorrow’s caucus meetings at 1,700 location across Iowa. As Politico reports: “Selzer…said in an interview…
Can you foresee what’ll happen in the political world in 2012? With the new year less than a day old but with Iowa already at fever pitch, it’s time to make your competition predictions for what could be a huge year for political and economic events around the world. As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part in the Game, the 2012 season is now underway – the Leaders &…
David Herdson dusts off his crystal ball for the year ahead For all that 2011 was a big year for politics domestically – the first nationwide referendum since the 1970s, in which AV was voted down, the formation of a majority SNP government at Holyrood, cracks appearing in both the coalition and Ed Miliband’s leadership – the biggest stories came from abroad. At the start of the year, predicting mounting trouble for the Eurozone, where problems in Greece, Ireland and…
Could Mitt be over-taken on Tuesday? The big news tonight in the race for the White House is that the much anticipated Des Moines Register poll is just out. The overall figures are in line with other recent surveys – Romney 24% / Paul 22% / Santorum 15% / Gingrich 12% / Perry 11% / Bachmann 7%. But the paper reports that there was a massive difference in responses later in the week which suggest that the momentum is with…