And MORI has a sharp drop for LAB With the budget tomorrow, the Illinois primary and now the March MORI poll there’s a lot of news about. MORI has CON 36 (+1); LAB 37 (-4); LD 11 (-1) so the only big changes has been to the LAB share. What was a 6% LAB lead last month has become a 1% lead now. NOTE: I’m on holiday at the moment and am not spending much time on the site or…
Is Ken being hit by the tax revelations? A new YouGOV poll has Boris at 54% to Ken’s 46% UPDATE: Boris price tightens sharply following poll Betfair Politics As can be seen from the chart punters now give Boris a 70% chance of victory. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Would such a move be a Tory “Clause 4 moment”? There’s an interesting article in the Guardian by Tim Montgomerie under the heading Class is the Conservative clause IV – The Tory party must appeal to the northern strivers to have any hope of another outright election victory He develops an argument first put last November when he argued that for his party to win a majority they had to be seen to be on the side of “the little…
Others slip back sharply The March ICM poll for the Guardian is out and the figures are above. LAB is down; CON and the LDs are up. ICM has the best record for accuracy of the main pollsters and Labour/EdM must be delighted that the firm does not have the daily poll contract with News International. If numbers like this were coming out five times a week then it would really add to the pressure on the LAB leadership. The…
Or will it survive until the May 2015 election? As I have mentioned I’m currently on holiday close to the Scottish border near Berwick and am not posting as much as usual. The fun-poll was created to help fill in during the afternoons. When will the coalition break-up? By the end of 2012 By the end of 2013 By the end of 2014 It will survive until the general election @MikeSmithsonOGH
Should you be betting on the 3/1 incumbent? We are just over a month away from the first round of the French presidential election. Voting takes place on Sunday April 22nd with the final run-off of the top two scheduled for a fortnight later on May 6th – there days after the UK’s big elections. In the first round there are ten contenders and at one stage there was a question as to whether Sarkozy would even make the final…
Should there be a different test of their likelihood to vote? Thanks to Anthony Wells at UKPR for spotting this one – the latest voting intention poll for the Ios/Sunday Mirror embraces a new approach to weighting for likelihood to vote for the smaller parties. These include the BNP, UKIP and the Greens. Instead of the pollster’s standard adjustment based on including those rating themselves from 5/10 upwards on voting certainty there will be a tougher measure for the smaller…
S Telegraph Would this make health less toxic for the Tories? According to Patrick Hennessy in the Sunday Telegraph the long-awaited ministerial re-shuffle could take place this summer before the Olympics. One name being increasingly mentioned, and indeed is the favourite for the axe in the next cabinet exit markets, is the beleagured health secretary and Dave’s former close colleague at CCHQ, Andrew Lansley. One possible replacement is Jeremy Hunt, the culture secretary. However it might not be as simple…