Should there be a different test of their likelihood to vote?
Thanks to Anthony Wells at UKPR for spotting this one – the latest voting intention poll for the Ios/Sunday Mirror embraces a new approach to weighting for likelihood to vote for the smaller parties. These include the BNP, UKIP and the Greens.
Instead of the pollster’s standard adjustment based on including those rating themselves from 5/10 upwards on voting certainty there will be a tougher measure for the smaller parties. For them only those respondees saying they are 10/10 certain will be included. There is no change for the main parties.
This should mean smaller shares for BNP/UKIP/GRN in future ComRes polls.
On this one I think ComRes boss Andrew Hawkins is right. One tendency seen in poll after poll from the firm has been a higher proportion of those naming one of the smaller parties not having voted at the last election. ICM deals with this by discounting the “value” of each interviewee who didn’t vote by a half but applies this across the board to all parties.
I prefer the ICM adjustment but this will at least put the increased numbers of those not saying the main parties into context.