Should you be betting on the 3/1 incumbent?
We are just over a month away from the first round of the French presidential election.
Voting takes place on Sunday April 22nd with the final run-off of the top two scheduled for a fortnight later on May 6th – there days after the UK’s big elections.
In the first round there are ten contenders and at one stage there was a question as to whether Sarkozy would even make the final run-off. Now one poll has him ahead of the Socialist Party contender, Francois Hollande.
Other polling has shown the gap narrowing as well – though that is only for the first round.
The critical numbers are on the Hollande – Sarkorzy run-off and here Hollande continues to enjoy double digit leads though the gap has narrowed a touch.
My guess is that as we get closer to the day then this will get tighter though whether Sarkozy has it in him to hang on for a second term is much in doubt.
For me the betting interest in this election has been killed by the refusal of Betfair to put up a market apparently because of new French laws banning betting exchanges.