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Antifrank on why prospective 2015 losses are being overstated 1. The Lib Dems won’t fight a national general election The Lib Dems, unlike the Conservatives and Labour, will not seriously be trying to win a general election. They will be trying to hold their current seats (or if polling improves, get a few extra). They’re going to be fighting seriously in 100 or so seats. On current polling, that number may halve. Seats which get disproportionate effort are going to…

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Ipsos-MORI Should George have blocked the coming duty increase? Forget the granny tax and the 45p tax rate is the biggest threat to the coalition popularity at the moment the increasing cost of petrol and diesel. The MORI issues index for March is just out and shows a sharp rising in the proportion sample raising the price of a litre. As the chart shows it’s up by more than double to 13% in this monthly face-to-face survey where, uniquely, interviewees…

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What’ll it do to Dave/George’s majority goal? In a recent Indy column Mary Ann Sieghart reported on how Tory head of strategy, Andrew Cooper, is saying that about 10 per cent of voters agree with Cameron on the deficit, think Dave is a strong and fair PM, but don’t like his party and aren’t inclined to vote for it. Sieghart went on: “..These voters still see the Tories as callous, out of touch, the party of the rich, and obsessed…

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Why the improvements for Miliband and Clegg? The focus on the budget in the past couple of days has over-shadowed the latest Ipsos-MORI poll with its all important leader ratings. These have been part of the firm’s polling for 37 years and the firm remains the only non-online pollster that asks this on monthly basis. The question is framed as – are you satisfied or dissatisfied?. The latest numbers show the best ratings for Ed Miliband since last last summer…

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com Recent Threads

Why’s he hitting those most likely to vote Tory? Lots to digest from the Osborne budget and the item that I’m most surprised to see is the phasing out of pensioners tax allowances. Eh? These are are people who played a key part in getting rid of Labour ar the last general election. They are the most blue-inclined segment of the electorate, and they are most likely to be on the register and to vote. Also many have been hit…

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Something tells me this Budget will showcase Osborne’s love of political trap-setting for his opponents. He finds the sport irresistible. — Stewart Wood (@StewartWood) March 18, 2012 Will traps be sets for The Eds, Nick and the unions? At the weekend Ed Miliband’s top adviser and the man who played a key part in his leadership victory, Stewart (now Lord) Wood made the above observation about today’s budget. And when Stewart talks about traps being set he knows what he’s…

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Google politics The question isn’t who’s the nominee. It’s whether Romney soars or limps into Tampa. That’s not determined yet. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 21, 2012 Romney unable to break through with key constituencies tonight, like voters who do not like Mitt Romney. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) March 21, 2012 Gingrich slumps to single figures? Mitt Romney had his predicted big win in Illinois overnight and is set, surely, to take the nomination? The state is a big one…

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