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Is Ken’s deficit -2% or -11.2%? Pollster Ken deficit on first preferences YouGov online -2% ComRes online -9% Survation online -11.2% Make no mistake real elections where real results can be compared to real final polls are absolutely critical to the pollsters’ concerned. These are moments when reputations can be won and lost and can have big impacts on their commercial success. Next Friday three pollsters will be waiting in eager anticipation for the declaration of the results in the…

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Have you any suggestions for PB online polls? On May 20th Jacky and I are heading to Barcelona, Cadiz and Ronda for two and a half weeks. Unlike my previous holidays there will be not be the same level of posting on PB. We will put up open threads and a number of pre-prepared guest slots. I’m hoping that we’ll get the latest voting intention poll details up. One daily feature which we can set up in advance is a…

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Their impact will be far less than might appear The two pollsters who are carrying out regular London Mayorals surveys, and ComRes and YouGov are both issuing two sets of numbers when they publish their results. These are the first preferences of those interviewed and then their estimation of what the final split between the top 2 will be. The media is tending to focus on the latter which might be misleading. My view is that we should put our…

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Should you be taking the 12/1 bet on Jones for 3rd There’s a new London Mayoral poll just out from Comres which is showing a very different picture from that reported on Monday by YouGov. The first preference figures are with changes on the firm’s last Mayoral poll published on April 10th – Boris 45%-1/Ken 36%-5/Jones 6%+2/Paddick 5%-1/Benita 3%+3/UKIP 2%+1/BNP 2%+1 It was inevitable, as the race gathered pace, that the top two would see some shrinkage as other candidates…

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How come that afterwards there was such a big poll decline? So much has been talked about this week of the political power of the Murdoch empire that I thought I’d that it might be useful to reflect on the period before the last election. Look at the table of pre-election ICM polls above. By September/October 2009, the time of the Sun’s endorsement, the blues were in the 40s with a solid 17% lead and looked all set to be…

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Welcome to the best overnight political conversation on the net. Have a good evening. Latest YouGov -CON 32%, LAB 43%, LD 9%; — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 According to the YouGov data 12% of Tory 2010 voters now say they are UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 New poll from Opinium has CON 31%-1/ LAB 38%+1/LD 11%+2/UKIP 8%-2 bit.ly/ISoqkN — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Next cabinet exit betting Odds Jeremy Hunt evens Andrew Lansley 8/1 Baroness Warsi 10/1 Cheryl Gillan 10/1 Vince Cable 10/1 Ken Clarke 10/1 Caroline Spelman 12/1 Theresa May 12/1 William Hague 16/1 Michael Moore 16/1 Ed Davey 20/1 Owen Paterson 20/1 Iain Duncan Smith 20/1 Michael Gove 20/1 David Cameron 25/1 Andrew Mitchell 33/1 Lord Strathclyde 33/1 Justine Greening 40/1 George Osborne 40/1 Danny Alexander 40/1 Eric Pickles 40/1 Nick Clegg 50/1 Philip Hammond 50/1 The Culture sec now evens…

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The “Hunt going today” odds tightens even further. Now 4/7.Was 13/8 an hour ago. See PaddyPower bit.ly/I8PkIO — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 Ed M plays class warrior: ‘The complacent arrogant posh boys don’t get it’ #PMQs — Sunday Times News (@ST_Newsroom) April 25, 2012 Nick Clegg shakes his head when Cameron says Hunt has his full support — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 25, 2012 EdM gets out the s-word Sleaze. Clear subliminal ref to 1990s. Cam redder than…

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