What’s your view – will they stick it out? How long has the coalition got left? 6 months 12 months 18 months 24 months 30 months It will survive until the May 2015 election Surprisingly I couldn’t find a betting market. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
What are the electoral lessons to be learned? The vote for London mayor is unusual in many ways, one of which is that because of the electronic counting system, all second preferences are identified and recorded. Last week, the full second preference breakdown for May’s vote was released, and is well worth analysing. Interestingly, most people who voted for Boris or Ken also cast a second preference despite the almost certain knowledge that their first choice would be in the…
The best overnight political conversation Have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Should you be taking the Ladbrokes 16/1? Anybody who watched BB1’s “The Week” last night will have heard Michael Portillo talk in strong terms about Michael Gove’s chances of becoming next Tory leader. Portillo described the education secretary as a “serious candidate for the future“. His great strength was that “He knows what he is about, he knows what he wants and these are things that people crave.” Certainly compared with others at the top of the betting Gove must…
Has he walked into a trap that could have been avoided? I was surprised to see the Prime Minister wade into smug comic Jimmy Carr’s tax affairs. It was clearly going to be a short-term populist move to speak of “morally wrong†tax affairs, but it seemed strange. He’s not the only one. In his Budget this year George Osborne went further calling tax avoidance “morally repugnantâ€. These are strong words and no doubt they both believe the public will…
LAB lead back to double figures with YouGov. 33/43/8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 21, 2012
YouGov And the blues have got bigger negatives? The chart above is from a new YouGov poll for Prospect when respondents were asked the following question:- “On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means you would never consider voting for them, and 10 means you would definitely consider voting for them, how likely are you to consider voting for the following parties at the next election?” It should be noted that each respondent was asked in turn about…
Is education policy becoming a leadership battleground? An intriguing battle is in prospect between the two Tory politicians who are most on the up at the moment – the victor against all the national trends in the London election last month and the cabinet minister seen by many as the most successful whose reputation was enhanced by his Leveson appearance. The big political story in London in the past 24 hours is the news in the Evening Standard that Boris…