Is the potential for Labour simply much greater?

Is the potential for Labour simply much greater?


And the blues have got bigger negatives?

The chart above is from a new YouGov poll for Prospect when respondents were asked the following question:-

    “On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means you would never consider voting for them, and 10 means you would definitely consider voting for them, how likely are you to consider voting for the following parties at the next election?”

It should be noted that each respondent was asked in turn about all the parties.

Amongst those who were definite, those saying 10 of of 10, the Tories are on 20% only 2 points behind Labour on 22%. The LDs are on 5, UKIP 6, and Green 4.

Amongst those who are definite that they would not consider Labour with 22% has the lowest total. The Greens are next on 31% with the Tories having a definite no rating of 35%, the LD 36% and UKIP on 40%.

It’s the middle set that’s probably the most interesting – those rating their chances in the range 5-10. Here Labour has a significant lead with 54% ahead of the Tories on 42%, the Greens on 35%, the LDs at 33% and with UKIP on 31%.

    This looks like really good news for Ed Miliband’s party and shows the scale of the challenge facing the blues.

    UKIP don’t come out of this anything like as well as they might have hoped

My reading is that Labour simply have a bigger pool of potential voters to go at. The main caveat is that the polling was taken in early June when Labour had a very solid lead in all the main voting intention polls.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

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