The Times have the story about how some Tory MPs including those in the shadow cabinet are looking to oust Kemi Badenoch as soon as next month, Robert Jenrick wants to wait until after next year’s elections. One thing I hadn’t expected is this little nugget as I expected Badenoch to dragged kicking and screaming from the leadership, she would display a level of self awareness she has hitherto failed to show. Two senior allies of Badenoch said that she…
I am not sure Sir Mel Stride’s commitment to keeping the triple lock in place until at least 2034 will help attract younger voters. TSE
Addressing Tory members at the event run by thinktank Demos, Sir John said: “The Liberal Democrat vote is now much more geographically concentrated than your vote, and the electoral system is now treating you like it treated the Liberal Democrats. “And so the Liberal Democrats are just behind you in the polls, they are going to almost undoubtedly win more seats than you.” I have been highlighting this market from Ladbrokes for a while, I think the Lib Dems are…
This polling doesn’t bring any good news for Kemi Badenoch, if the leadership election was run today Jenrick would win. ‘Tory members are split as to whether she will make it that far. A total of 49% think she will be out before the election, compared with 47% who think she’ll still be in place.’ I would also encourage the 14% of Tory members who think the Tories will win a majority at the next election to starting using Betfair….
There’s a lot to digest from this YouGov polling, the thing that stands out for me is just 54% of Green voters would be willing to go into a coalition with Labour. This polling bodes ill for Labour in gaining Green tactical votes to stop Reform which is good news for Nigel Farage and his hopes to become Prime Minister after the next election. TSE
Leaving aside the unpopularity of leaving the ECHR one aspect that is likely to trip up Badenoch’s plans to leave the ECHR is now to deal with the Good Friday Agreement which has the ECHR embedded into it. Unless she comes up with a plausible answer on how her plans will impact the peace deal that solved that religious and sectarian violence and terrorism that scarred the United Kingdom for decades. Her Northern Ireland error earlier on this week just…
I actually believe Robert Jenrick, after a fashion. My expectation is that the likes of Jenrick and others who want to replace Kemi Badenoch will wait until after next May’s local and devolved elections to let her take the responsibility for the defeats. The expectation is that the Tories next year will experience a humiliation that normally is associated with hiring six dozen dominatrices concurrently which something Jenrick and others will not want to be responsible for. So rather than…
Last week YouGov released the latest iteration of their MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) survey. For anyone not aware, this is a survey combining data from 13,000 voters and demographic data to predict all the seats in Great Britain (except for the Speaker’s seat of Chorley). YouGov have had splendid success with their MRP and correctly called 92% of seats at the 2024 election (also helping my betting returns). That said, we should point out a couple of caveats as…