Dave’s majority challenge: Part 1 Tactical Voting

Dave’s majority challenge: Part 1 Tactical Voting

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Michael Ashcroft polling September 2011 Could this impact on Tory hopes? (This is the first of a series of articles looking at the Tory chances of winning a majority. This first one looks at tactical voting) One of the big challenges that the blues have had to deal with in recent general elections has been anti-Tory tactical voting in key seats. What happens is that voters choose the contender in their own constituency who seems most likely to beat the…

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What about about the Hung Parliament – No Coalition bet?

What about about the Hung Parliament – No Coalition bet?

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Will all parties be more wary about formal coalitions? William Hill has just put up the above market on the composition of the commons after the next general election and I rather like the OTHER option which was initially priced at 12/1 and is now down to 8/1. My reading is that this would cover situations where no party won an overall majority and that there was, unlike now, no formal coalition deal. I cannot see either the Tories or…

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Should Dave be able to expect better of his MPs?

Should Dave be able to expect better of his MPs?

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Did Jesse & co make it easy for Ed Miliband? It’s been a pretty terrible 24 hours for David Cameron. 91 of his MPs rebelled against the Lords bill, he was seen losing his cool with Jesse Norman the rebellion organiser, and Ed Miliband had his clearest PMQS victory since becoming opposition leader. I bet that Cameron is really looking forward to his holidays. The question is whether this is temporary or has permanent damage been done? To my mind…

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Mitt’s Veep decision could come next week

Mitt’s Veep decision could come next week

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Would this deflect the Bain attacks? The hottest political betting market at the moment has nothing to with the Tory rebellion on Lords reform last night – rather the focus of punters is on who Mitt Romney will choose as his running mate for November’s presidential election. Normally we would not have expected an announcement much before the party convention at the end of August but the signs are that this might be earlier. Romney, who became a national figure…

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Will Osborne black-ball a promotion for Andrea?

Will Osborne black-ball a promotion for Andrea?

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Was it wise to say George should apologise to Balls? One of the 2010 intake of Tory MPs who has been making her mark is Andrea Leadsom who came to the commons after a career in finance. She’s been talked about very highly and must, surely, be one of those who can reasonably expect preferment in Dave’s first re-shuffle. She has played quite a big role in the Treasury select committee discussion on the LIBOR scandal where she’s been perhaps…

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If the rebellion succeeds the LDs get 70 new Life Peers

If the rebellion succeeds the LDs get 70 new Life Peers

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Will the yellows do better if the bill goes down? So here we are here. The closing session of debate at Westminster on Lords reform at which the ostensible issue is not the the issue. Both the reds and large numbers of the blues are trying to block making the upper house democratic not by addressing the issue itself but throwing a spanner into the works on how the commons should deal with it. Yet what very few people have…

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Can the coalition survive a Lords reform defeat?

Can the coalition survive a Lords reform defeat?

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Where will things stand after tonight? The time-table motion on the Lords reform bill is taking on a significance way beyond the procedural measures for the passage of the bill for which it is ostensibly about. Without that in place the measure, backed I’m told by 17 Tory cabinet ministers, will have real trouble progressing through the commons and the chances of it being enacted will look even slimmer. The bigger question will be what it does to the coalition….

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