If there is a Lib Dem contest it won’t be a walkover for Vince

If there is a Lib Dem contest it won’t be a walkover for Vince

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Norman Lamb could be the establishment flag-bearer I’m far from convinced that Nick Clegg is about to be ousted or agree to walk of his own accord. He strikes me as an extraordinarily resilient figure and he’ll aim to finish off what he’s started. Having said that I was tempted yesterday by the 16/1 that Ladbrokes was offering on him going during 2012. But if there is a leadership election it’s going to be a bigger challenge for Vince Cable…

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Are Dave and Nick just too weak for a big reshuffle?

Are Dave and Nick just too weak for a big reshuffle?

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There could be less change than expected This is supposed to be the week of the long-awaited reshuffle which will produce the new line-up of ministers who’ll take the coalition partners into the general election. There’s been lots of speculation and, of course, betting particularly on our old favourite – the next cabinet exit markets. If more than one minister goes on the same day then some bookies, though by no means all, will pay out according to their dead…

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Day by day how Betfair Romney punters reacted to the GOP convention

Day by day how Betfair Romney punters reacted to the GOP convention

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Historical data from Bestbetting But does Mitt have a better than 35% chance Sometimes betting price change charts can be very telling and the one above shows how the Romney White House race odds changed during the party convention in Tampa last week. The Betfair prices are shown in terms of an implied probability and as can be seen Mitt was having a great convention until the moment he stood up to speak. This all seems to be in line…

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YouGov adds to the pressure on Clegg

YouGov adds to the pressure on Clegg

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Ominous for Clegg? By 47% to 31% LD voters tell YouGov that the party would do better at the election with a different leader. S Times — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2012 Will he still be leader at the general election? With the Lib Dem conference due to start in less than three weeks there’s some new polling tonight that could put more pressure on the party leader, Nick Clegg. The Sunday Times is reporting that in its poll…

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Ignore national White House polling: Ohio is the key

Ignore national White House polling: Ohio is the key

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The state that’s most likely to be the “tipping point” Everything in US presidential election is about the so called “swing states” – the ones that can move every four years and have a huge impact on the overall result. There are about twelve of them and the most important of all is Ohio which, according to the US polling and election expert, Nate Silver has a 30% chance of being the “tipping point” state – meaning that it would…

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Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

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David Herdson asks “Is Obama really so assured of some swingback?” Conventions come and conventions go.  Providing they go more or less to plan, the candidate will receive a short-term bounce in the polls, some favourable coverage in the media and a reinvigorated campaign.  Such has been largely the lot of Mitt Romney this last week and such will likely be the case for Barack Obama next.  Romney has either closed the gap or taken a slight lead, depending on…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events. If you’ve always been a lurker, stop leaving an Invisible Touch, why not  start posting Tonight, Tonight, Tonight, your first post could be the genesis of something great. The round up of recent events. The Guardian says the reshuffle is expected next week Tony Blair set to return to the House of Commons We’ve found the one person in the country who has…

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