Conservatives suffer worst competence loss of any government in 1st year – since 1945

Conservatives suffer worst competence loss of any government in 1st year – since 1945

Academic Guest slot Ratings of Conservative party competence declined more than any government in its first year since 1945, research by Dr Jane Green (University of Manchester) and Dr Will Jennings (University of Southampton) reveals. The authors calculate an overall competence score based on public evaluations of parties on different policy issues. Using this new measure (named ‘macro-competence’), based on over 3,000 polls in Great Britain over 67 years, and comparing governments between 1945 and 2010, their analysis reveals that…

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Ipsos-Mori Voting Intention Out

Ipsos-Mori Voting Intention Out

The Ipsos-Mori Voting Intention and Leadership ratings are out. On the voting intention it is Conservatives 32 (+1) Labour 42 (-2) Lib Dems 11 (-1) Despite their lead being reduced, Labour will be delighted with a ten point lead with a phone pollster. On the leadership ratings. David Cameron has seen an improvement from a net rating of  minus 27 in July to a net rating of minus 16 this month. Ed Miliband has also seen an improvement, in July…

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MEMO to Nigel Farage: Check out the Corby Cube Controversy

MEMO to Nigel Farage: Check out the Corby Cube Controversy

Click to see BBC regional news report Is this the issue to put Labour on the defensive? A good by-election campaign always needs a good local issue – especially one that in skillful hands can be used to portray the front-runner in a poor light. Enter the Corby Cube – which opened on 2 November 2010 and cost £47.5m. It houses a chamber for the Borough Council, a Registry Office, a public library, a 450-seat theatre and a 100-seat studio…

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Dave has got a problem with Tory boundary rebels as well

Dave has got a problem with Tory boundary rebels as well

Up to 25 *Tories* would vote against boundary review – six of the eight in Wales for example. Cameron will ditch this Autumn, I think — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) August 16, 2012 The above Tweet from Sam Coates of the Times is the first attempt that I can recall to calculate how many Tory rebels there’d be on the boundaries if it ever got to a vote. The Coates projection of 25 would be enough to kill the plan…

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First Corby by-election poll says Labour is 15 percent ahead

First Corby by-election poll says Labour is 15 percent ahead

It’s CON 37% (-4.2): LAB 52% (+13.4) LD 7% (-7.5) Lord Ashcroft has published a poll on ConHome this morning suggesting that Labour is going to win back Corby – the seat lost to Louise Mensch at the general election. The shares are above showing the changes since the general election. If repeated in the election it would mean an 8.8% CON>LAB swing which is broadly what we are seeing with current national polling. Essentially the Tories are down a…

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London 2012 – Who should get the credit?

London 2012 – Who should get the credit?

Ipsos-MORI More from the MORI poll The first part of the August MORI poll was released during the day and focused on public reaction the the Olympics. Yet to come are the MORI voting intention figures and also the firm’s latest leadership ratings. That’s due tomorrow morning at some stage. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

The Queen, the BBC and Boris the big London 2012 winners – poll

The Queen, the BBC and Boris the big London 2012 winners – poll

New MORI poll finds just one person in sample of 1,007 who did not believe London 2012 had been a success.bit.ly/NAVkJZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2012 81% tell MORI that their view of BBC had improved by Olympic coverage. 6% said it had fallenbit.ly/NAVkJZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2012 70% tell Ipsos-MORI that their view of Royal Family had improved by the Olympics against 5% who said it had fallen.bit.ly/NAVkJZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15,…

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