Is UKIP here to stay as a serious player?

Is UKIP here to stay as a serious player?

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Have they been given the space to emerge onto the main stage? Being taken seriously is the first and probably the biggest challenge for any group or individual outside the mainstream seeking to break in. Politics, like so much of society, has institutional inertia and it takes a lot to disrupt the virtuous circles keeping the main parties in place and the rest out. Put simply, without support, you don’t get any attention or credibility; without credibility and attention, you…

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Poll blows for Nick Clegg as the party faithful gather in Brighton

Poll blows for Nick Clegg as the party faithful gather in Brighton

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Daily Mirror Just 25% of LDs think they’ll do better keeping him A new Survation poll for today’s Daily Mirror, taken partly after Clegg “Sorry” video shows no change for the party, The only movement on the firm’s last poll in the Mail on Sunday a month ago has been a three point increase in the LAB vote at the expense of others. These are the figures: CON 30(nc):LAB 40(+3):LD 10(nc): UKIP 12(nc) The firm almost always reports the biggest…

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Asking the same leadership questions in both the UK and US

Asking the same leadership questions in both the UK and US

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Ipsos-MORI It’s now clear that the leadership questions released on Cameron and Miliband earlier this week were part of a much bigger transatlantic survey involving the Ipsos group of which MORI is its UK arm. I thought it odd at the time that included in the list was “man of faith” – something that didn’t seem right from a UK perspective. The info-graphic above sets out the findings with stronger figures, in the main, for the incumbent in each case….

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Will Mitchell be able to survive #GateGate

Will Mitchell be able to survive #GateGate

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Has Iain Martin got this right? This is how the Telegraph’s Iain Martin sees the “f***ing plebs” affair now with its own #GateGate Twitter hash tag. Under the headline “Andrew Mitchell will be very lucky to hold onto his job“ Martin writes:- “…This is toxic for the Tories on several levels. It is shocking bad manners. Can anyone imagine a Tory cabinet minister of the 1950s or 1980s being so rude to a policeman, or indeed to anyone else in…

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Have any of the parties pitched their tent in the right field?

Have any of the parties pitched their tent in the right field?

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Henry G Manson on core vote versus anti-core vote There’s a good article from David Clark, Robin Cook’s former adviser at the website Shifting Grounds. It really caught my eye this week. It sums up the perennial challenge facing political parties – where to pitch your electoral tent. It’s worth reading in full: Clark points out that political parties seeking power can’t simply afford a core vote approach. So far so obvious. But he insists neither can it afford an…

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Ed is doing better than Hague and IDS but is behind Blair and Cameron

Ed is doing better than Hague and IDS but is behind Blair and Cameron

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The Ipsos-MORI Opposition leader comparison A lot has been said in the past couple of days about leader ratings and I thought this Ipsos-MORI chart was worth putting up, It shows how Ed Miliband is doing against other recent leaders of the opposition at exactly the same stage since they took over the role. The chart is self-explanatory but EdM is a touch behind Cameron at this stage in Dave’s time as opposition leader. Both were miles ahead of IDS…

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Clegg’s survival as Lib Dem leader must now be in more doubt

Clegg’s survival as Lib Dem leader must now be in more doubt

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Everything depends on the “apology” turning things round Unless last night’s “apology” over making the pre-election student fees pledge turns things round for the party then it is hard to see how Nick Clegg can survive until the general election. Parliamentary parties are generally unsentimental about these things. If enough of a party’s MPs think that there’s a better chance of holding onto their seats at the general election with a different leader then with the Tories and Lib Dems…

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