The Michael Ashcroft polling that should cheer the Lib Dems up

The Michael Ashcroft polling that should cheer the Lib Dems up

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ConHome Sept 26 2011 Although it’s a year old the findings are still valid This post has been put up following a promise I made at the Times/Populus Lib Dem conference fringe meeting yesterday. It relates to Michael Ashcroft polling from September 2011 which was carried out in Tory seats that were vulnerable to Labour and the Lib Dems. There’s has been nothing like it before or since and I’d contend that the general thrust is still valid. The Lib…

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Two in three say Osborne’s regional pay plan should be scrapped

Two in three say Osborne’s regional pay plan should be scrapped

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Just one in 5 back the chancellor A new Survation survey commissioned by the TUC suggests that Osborne’s message on regional pay in the public sector is not getting across. The survey’s publication has been timed to coincide with the Lib Dem conference where the issue of reducing the public sector wage bill by moving away from national pay rates will be discussed. 61% told Survation that the plan was unfair with more than 70% of Lib Dem voters taking…

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Labour moves to a ten point lead with ICM

Labour moves to a ten point lead with ICM

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And a Vince leadership would take the LDs to 19% The ICM poll for September is just out and sees Labour move to their best position for 9 years with the firm that is widely regarded as the gold standard. The figures with changes on August are CON 31%-3/LAB 41%+ 2/LD 14%-1 Although double digit LAB leads have became almost common place with other firms ICM had generally been showing Miliband’s party doing worse. The other big news is that…

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Announcing the PB William Hill White House Competition

Announcing the PB William Hill White House Competition

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Compete for £1,000 in free bets as prizes Thanks to the generosity of William Hill we are able to announce the 2012 White House Race competition. All you have to do is guess the vote share winner gap, down to two decimal points, of your selection There will be 3 prizes of £500, £350 and £150 in free bets for the closest predictions. Note that it is entirely possible for the vote share winner not to be the next President….

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Has Mitchell’s statement just given the story more “legs”?

Has Mitchell’s statement just given the story more “legs”?

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Would it have been better to say nothing? Within the last hour Andrew Mitchell has made a statement on the events that have dogged his party now for three complete news cycles. He reiterated his original denial about not using the words that were attributed to him and made clear that he would not be resigning. So what was the purpose of the breakfast time statement? Mitchell said he wanted to draw a line under the incident yet his move…

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The 2014 Euros will be crucial for the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg

The 2014 Euros will be crucial for the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg

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It’s possible that they could finish in 5th place Talking with delegates here at the Lib Dem conference I get little sense of any appetite for a change at the top just now. The big hope is the same as the Tories – that come the May 2015 general election there will be the glimmer of an economic recovery and all the pain will have been worthwhile. Maybe – maybe not. But before then they have an electoral challenge that…

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Will the race for the White House be over before the debates are?

Will the race for the White House be over before the debates are?

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Edmund in Tokyo’s inaugural guest slot If the US presidential election were held tomorrow, it looks fairly clear who would win. Nate Silver’s “Nowcast”, showing his model’s estimate of the probability of an Obama win would be if the election day polls were the same as the polls today, currently stands at 95.8%. Neither Silver nor the betting markets currently think an Obama win in November is anything like that likely. Silver’s forecast for the actual election stands at a…

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The biggest polling weekend since general election sees outcomes ranging from a CON 4 pt lead to LAB 12 pts ahead

The biggest polling weekend since general election sees outcomes ranging from a CON 4 pt lead to LAB 12 pts ahead

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YouGov finds that the Tories would have a 4% lead if Boris was leader &Vince led the LDs.CON 39%/LAB 35%/LD 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012 If Boris led Tories &Clegg and Miliband still in place YouGov find it would be CON 38%/LAB 38%/LD 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012 If Boris led Tories &Clegg and Miliband still in place YouGov find it would be CON 38%/LAB 38%/LD 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012…

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