Unlike Bradford West there’s nothing in the betting to suggest anything but LAB holds in Thursday’s 3 by-elections

Unlike Bradford West there’s nothing in the betting to suggest anything but LAB holds in Thursday’s 3 by-elections

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Betfair data shows that there’s hardly a rush of money going on parties other than LAB in Rotherham. £61 backing Respect & £62 UKIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Betfair data also show that in Croydon N the total of bets bcking Respect totals just £34 with £0 going on UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 On the Middlesbrough Betfair market nobody has backed anycandidate other than LAB. Last price traded 1/100. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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The US authorities move in to stop the Irish betting exchange Intrade. US customers are ordered to close their accounts

The US authorities move in to stop the Irish betting exchange Intrade. US customers are ordered to close their accounts

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US authorities take action against Intrade. All US punters ordered to close accounts. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54041 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Where now for the Dublin-based bookie? As I’ve often remarked on PB I’ve found it odd that while Betfair has for years taken large measures to stop any US-based customers from accessing its site and trading on its market the Dublin firm, Intrade, has apparently operated with impunity. During the recent White House race the firm became the…

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LAB leads drops 4 points in latest ComRes phone poll

LAB leads drops 4 points in latest ComRes phone poll

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LAB lead down from 11 to 7 in tonight’s Indy/ComRes phone poll. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54034 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2012 The ComRes phone poll, one of just four we get each month using this methodology, is just out and, as can be seen, the LAB lead of 11% or a month ago becomes 7% with the Tories moving up 2 and Labour moving down 2. Most of the fieldwork took place while the Rotherham fostering case was making the…

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What about the David Cameron description UKIP as being a party mostly of “fruit-cakes, nutters and closet racists” ?

What about the David Cameron description UKIP as being a party mostly of “fruit-cakes, nutters and closet racists” ?

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Henry G Manson makes the case David Cameron’s quote about UKIP has been bandied around the press this weekend amid speculation he may distance himself from it. He was right not to do so. Whatever the politics or prejudices of UKIP supporters there are things we do know about them in the public domain. They’re not something that any mainstream political party should have anything to do with. There also those in UKIP rejected by the Conservatives because they no…

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Dave would be making a big mistake if he tries try to duck out of TV leaders’ debates in 2015

Dave would be making a big mistake if he tries try to duck out of TV leaders’ debates in 2015

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Marf PB cartoon May 3rd 2010 Grant Shapps has not thought this one through While all eyes have been on UKIP and Rotherham what for me was the biggest general election news over the weekend has been largely ignored. This was the comment by Tory chair, Grant Shapps, that Dave might not take part in TV debates in the run-up to the next general election. Given the impact that the debates had in 2010 this could have a major impact…

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ComRes polling data – How current UKIP supporters said they voted at the general election

ComRes polling data – How current UKIP supporters said they voted at the general election

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Just one in three current UKIP supporters voted CON at the 2010 general election. See split. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 Putting the UKIP surge in context for 2015? The latest data from ComRes shows that one third of those now saying they will support UKIP voted Conservative at the last general election. Disgruntled Lib Dems make up a large contingent but only 3% of them said they voted Labour. This puts into context the potential electoral…

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Nadine’s ended her jungle ordeal and is in fighting form attacking Dave and George

Nadine’s ended her jungle ordeal and is in fighting form attacking Dave and George

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Nadine in fighting form in LBC interview with Iain Dale bit.ly/UlXORf twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 Over to you Mr Chief Whip Nadine Dorries spoke to Iain Dale from Australia this morning on LBC 97.3 DALE: Going back to the issue of sexism, it’s been interesting that a lot of the MPs who have been most critical of you have actually been female Conservative MPs. Do you think that they’re going to send you to Coventry when…

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Britain and the EU – the party divide

Britain and the EU – the party divide

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Britain’s relationship with Europe: How voters from different parties see it differently – today’s YouGov twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 The chart has been prepared from the latest polling by YouGov on attitudes towards the EU. On the main issue of how people would vote in a referendum the overall split is 49% withdraw and 32% remain. The chart shows how voters for the parties divide. There is no column for UKIP because YouGov do not provide…

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