Is it possible that Labour might not hold all three by elections it is defending on Thursday?

Is it possible that Labour might not hold all three by elections it is defending on Thursday?

Comments 0 Comment

“@greenknight2010: @croydongreens Hedgebetting?!!??! twitter.com/GreenKnight201…” @johnloony — Croydon&SuttonGreens (@CroydonGreens) November 23, 2012 Ladbrokes make it a 4/1 on such a possibility Latest Ladbrokes by-election betting : Rotherham LAB 1/6: RES 5/1: UKIP 12/1Croydon N LAB 1/10: RES 5/1: UKIP 25/1 bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 Latest Hills by-election betting. Croydon N LAB 1/40: RES 15/2/ UKIP 80/1. Rotherham markets not shown at moment bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 PaddyPower by-election betting: Croydon N LAB 1/14:…

Read More Read More

While UKIP supporters are in the news here’s some polling from last weekend’s ComRes survey

While UKIP supporters are in the news here’s some polling from last weekend’s ComRes survey

Comments 0 Comment

The BNP in strong 2nd place in “other” party preferences of UKIP voters from ComRes last week.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 Because UKIP are doing well the sub-sample on which this was based was on 173.

Council tax reform is the only viable Mansion Tax

Council tax reform is the only viable Mansion Tax

Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson on the options for Osborne When George Osborne delivers his Autumn statement on December 5, the figures in his report will be at best mixed: the deficit is down on the peak but not by as much as expected and progress may have ground to a halt; employment is at record levels but long-term unemployment is also rising; above all, while growth returned to the UK economy in Q3, the annual performance has been well below expectations and…

Read More Read More

How saying goodbye to Gordon and being in opposition has boosted Labour “likeability” numbers

How saying goodbye to Gordon and being in opposition has boosted Labour “likeability” numbers

Comments 0 Comment

Being in opposition is doing wonders for Labour’s “likeability” ratings. See Ipsos-MORI data 2007-2012 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2012 But what will it look like if they return to power? The chart above is based on Ipsos-MORI’s October “Leaders and Parties” polling. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

Comments 0 Comment

What needs to change to win the key marginals? There was a fringe meeting at Conservative Party conference this autumn (see above) on how their party can win more votes and seats in the North. Without new boundaries it will be increasingly hard for the blue team to win a parliamentary majority without gaining more seats in the North of England, so it’s a live electoral issue. A recording of the debate has been posted online and it’s a good…

Read More Read More

Lynton Crosby’s biggest challenge? Turning round Dave’s “In touch with concerns of ordinary people” ratings

Lynton Crosby’s biggest challenge? Turning round Dave’s “In touch with concerns of ordinary people” ratings

Comments 0 Comment

David Cameron’s YouGov “In touch with ordinary people” ratings Oct 2007 – Nov 2012 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2012 This has to be solved or the Tories have a Romney-type problem Looking back over the last months of the White House race the biggest problem the Republicans had was that their standard-bearer was not seen as being in touch or understanding the problems of the middle classes. This became the peg on which Obama’s successful get the…

Read More Read More

The point of this Michael Ashcroft poll from Mid Beds seems to be to get Nadine Dorries de-selected by the local Tories

The point of this Michael Ashcroft poll from Mid Beds seems to be to get Nadine Dorries de-selected by the local Tories

Comments 0 Comment

An Ashcroft poll of Mid Beds voters has Nadine right at bottom on the positing/negative ratings. bit.ly/SdnU8b twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 There’s a new Michael Ashcroft poll just out taken in the ultra-safe blue seat of Mid-Befordshire where, of course, Nadine Dorries is MP. One set of question asked the sample of 1,500 to rate how positively or negatively a selection of prominent male politicians in comparison with Nadine. The figures are above. The danger is…

Read More Read More

If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat

If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat

Comments 0 Comment

Labour lead at 8 in latest YouGovCON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 Ladbrokes make UKIP 9/2 to win more votes than the LDs at the general election. A good bet if polls are right. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 @mattstrong @msmithsonpb UKIP had 572 last time, virtually a full house. Will surely compete in all next time. — The Happy Tramp (@Happy_Tramp) November 22, 2012 Ladbrokes are offering…

Read More Read More