If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat
Labour lead at 8 in latest YouGovCON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012
Ladbrokes make UKIP 9/2 to win more votes than the LDs at the general election. A good bet if polls are right. bit.ly/c5gpH6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012
@mattstrong @msmithsonpb UKIP had 572 last time, virtually a full house. Will surely compete in all next time.
— The Happy Tramp (@Happy_Tramp) November 22, 2012
Ladbrokes are offering 2/1 that UKIP will win a seat at the general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012
Virtually all the latest polls, except Ipsos-MORI which has UKIP at 3%, show UKIP equal with or even ahead of the Lib Dems and it is just possible to envisage that they could come in 3rd place in the popular vote in 2015.
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The art of general elections is not to have support spread out evenly across the nation but to be doing exceptionally well in seats where you are competitive and could win. Those are where you put your resource and effort.
The main general election battles will be fought in 80 or 90 seats where there’ll be high octane hugely intensive campaigns with effective GOTV operation by the parties defending and those on the offensive.
In the CON-LAB battle-grounds I’m expecting a heavy fall-of in the LD vote with yellows supporters going blue or red.
In these fights UKIP is going to find it much harder because there will little doubt in voters eyes that it’s LAB or CON.
But there will be 650 seats at stake and in more than 500 the outcomes are almost foregone conclusions. Here we could see a big growth in UKIP support which could, conceivably put them into third place in the overall national votes
But it’s hard at this stage to see them winning seats.
Mike Smithson
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