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So what is this going to do to the Eastleigh by election outcome

13/2/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Last night Labour selected John O’Farrell as their candidate for the Eastleigh by-election, thisÂ predictablyÂ attracted a lot of comment, and some movement in the betting. Such as the below tweet by the Political Editor of the Sun. By selecting John O’Farrell, have Labour made #Eastleigh a Tory win? He’ll take 1,000+ votes off the Libs. Tories delighted. â€” Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) February 13, 2013 My first instinct was to back Labour on Ladbrokes’ match vote bet with UKIP, and…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

12/2/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events. If you’ve always been a lurker, I hope you can, Find the Time, to post on pb, I’m sure you’ll, Shine, as a contributor on PB. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Labour select John O’Farrell as their candidate for Eastleigh. Occasional PB contributor, Hopi Sen, reviews the recent polling….

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The Number of Papal Ballots

12/2/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I know how much PBers like talking about electoral voting systems and processes. Fortunately Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have put up betting markets on how many ballots it will take to elect a new Pope, to compliment their who will be next Pope Markets. In the most recent elections, when Pope Benedict was elected, it took four ballots, hisÂ predecessorÂ John-Paul II was elected after eight ballots, whilst his predecessor John-Paul I was elected after four ballots. From the reports I’ve read,…

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Corporeal on Country versus Family YouGov Issues Indexes

12/2/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

A lot of factors go into a voter’s decision of which party (or none) will receive the little mark on the ballot paper next to their name; issues, party image (present and past), local situation are all in the mix somewhere alongside other factors, arguing about the exact recipe keeps professional political scientists (and amateur psephological nerds) in comfortable arguments. For some time now YouGov have been running two types of regular issues polling, one asking which party they support…

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Introducing Diane James – the woman on whom Ukip are pinning their #Eastleigh hopes

11/2/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ukip select their candidate for #Eastleigh. So only Labour to go. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 Could she make inroads into the Tory vote According the Ukip she’s been chosen for her “Tory appeal” – read all about her here The next few days on PB I’m on the train to Edinburgh in the morning for a three day visit during which I’m doing a presentation at the Scottish Parliament on polling and other matters. I’m really…

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Labour moves to its biggest ICM lead over the Tories since 2003

11/2/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Pie chart showing today’s ICM phone poll with record Ukip share and LAB lead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 ICM finds a LAB lead of 26% (51-25) amongst women but only 7% with men — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 All this after Dave’s EU speech and Brussels budget As PB regulars will know I regard the phone polls from ICM as the gold standard so this afternoon’s survey is something of a shocker. The Labour…

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It is being said that the next Pope will be from the developing world

11/2/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Pic of Ghanian Peter Turkson who is the 5/2 favourite to become next Pope twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 The bookies rush to get prices up following the shock news The people I’ve consulted in the past hour about the forthcoming papal election suggest that there’s a good chace that the next pope will be from the developing world. Ladbrokes make the Ghanian Cardinal, Peter Turkson, their opening favourite at 5/2 while the Sppeccie’s, Fraser Nelson is…

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Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

11/2/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Nigel Farage in Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 There were reports last night of other Eastleigh polls in the field that had the party order at LD, CON, Ukip with LAB in fourth place. Quite what the veractity of that information is I don’t know and in by-elections like this we have to treat reports of unpublished surveys with extreme scepticism. But what has become apparent is that in terms of planning and organisation there are…

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