Four very different pictures from the four overnight online polls for the Sunday papers

Four very different pictures from the four overnight online polls for the Sunday papers

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@msmithsonpb getting some interesting spreads in polling now — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 19, 2013 The Tories are seen as being much more divided than LAB 73% tell the latest YouGov survey that the Tories are divided with just 10% saying united. 29% said LAB united to 36% saying divided — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 In the Sunday Telelgraph/ICM Wisdom Index those polled are asked to predict the percentages for the four main parties. Note that…

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Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s

Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s

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And ComRes online has Ukip up to a record 19% for any firm ComRes leader ratings see Dave drop to new low & EdM to new high Amongst other questions If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU Agree: 49% Disagree: 27% Don’t know: 24% Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election Agree: 31% Disagree: 37%…

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TSE on Making Your Mind Up on who to back at Eurovision.

TSE on Making Your Mind Up on who to back at Eurovision.

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Whilst the polls show Brits remain cynical about Eurovision and think it is all about politics, some of us enjoy Eurovision for that reason, for the music and the betting opportunities. With the elimination of the Former Yugoslavian states of Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia in the semi finals, and Bosnia and Herzegovina withdrawing from the contest, due to financial reasons, there’s a potential for less Balkan bloc voting this time around which could make the final result more open. There are many…

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Hammond has the right coalition-building idea

Hammond has the right coalition-building idea

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Social conservatives are the key swing vote of the moment When David Cameron was Leader of the Opposition, he put a great deal of effort into detoxifying the Conservative brand – the analysis being that in order to gain an election-winning coalition, the Conservatives needed to pull swing centrist voters from both Labour and the Lib Dems.  In as far as it went, that was true but it was far from the whole picture. By going out of his way…

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Are Mandelson, Alexander and Clarke the best pro-Europeans can do?

Are Mandelson, Alexander and Clarke the best pro-Europeans can do?

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Henry G Manson on those FOR the EU This week we’ve seen growing numbers of politicians past and present suggest that they’d be prepared to vote for Britain to leave the European Union in a referendum. Public opinion is currently leaning towards exit. The Prime Minister has declared he wants Britain to remain within the EU on new negotiated terms, but his own party is so divided that he can’t be relied upon to make a passionate case for this….

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If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement

If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement

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I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 Coalition breakup = Early general election The main story in the Times this morning is a report that…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election) Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2) Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%) Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%) Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as…

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