Tories equal their lowest ever YouGov rating in the latest daily poll

Tories equal their lowest ever YouGov rating in the latest daily poll

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Ukip edge up 2 The changes are on the previous daily poll. After last night’s different pictures from the YouGov and Survation polls the latest one from the former, just published, sees the blues drop sharply and Ukip rising 2. The fall in the CON share of 4% is greater than the margin of error and this is either an outlier or an indication that we are seeing a new trend developing. The general theory is that voters punish parties…

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One by-product of the UKIP surge – smaller parties like National Health Action have been swamped

One by-product of the UKIP surge – smaller parties like National Health Action have been swamped

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UKIP’s surge has swamped parties like National Health Action. 14 mths ago Ashcroft polling had them at 18% to this twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013 Above is from some polling carried out for Michael Ashcroft in March 2012 on the possible impact that a NHS party could have on the next election. As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those…

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After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

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So why the huge difference? The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night. UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point. The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question….

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Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Survation poll

Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Survation poll

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The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections. Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch. Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right. Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking…

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PaddyPower offering betting market on whether Cameron will face a leadership challenge

PaddyPower offering betting market on whether Cameron will face a leadership challenge

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What does this say about Dave’s current position Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013 There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015. My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this…

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My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader to go are starting to look promising

My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader to go are starting to look promising

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Great value bet at Stan James. Cameron 10/1 to be first leader to leave pre-general election. Dave’s most at risk. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted…

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It’s going to be challenging for Cameron to appeal to both 2010 LDs and Ukip supporters at the same time

It’s going to be challenging for Cameron to appeal to both 2010 LDs and Ukip supporters at the same time

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The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election. There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting…

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