What does this say about Dave’s current position
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013
There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015.
My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this eventiality with a smaller bet at the 5/1 that he’ll face a challenge and survive.
We are now just over 23 months from the GE2015 and, no doubt, many of those Tories who won seats in 2010 are starting to get a bit anxious, especially when they work out the implication in their individual seats of the growing Ukip shares.
If we look at the form book the Tories do bring down leaders they fear will be an electoral liability.
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