If the opinion polls hold up then at the next election we’ll have four parties polling at least 10% of the vote for the first time in almost a century (the last and only time it previously occurred was in 1918, with the two Liberal factions alongside the Conservatives and Labour all achieving double figures, with 1922 being the only other election to come close). So what would this new state of affairs look like? In deference to Harry…
New PB thread on Ed vs Gordon pollingwww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2013 There’s some polling by YouGov for The Times (££) which has attracted headlines such as “Voters trust Miliband less than Brown”, but analysing the figures the results aren’t as bad for Ed and Labour as it first appears The Brown figures are from May 2010, shortly after polling day, whilst Ed’s figures have just been carried out. Here are the results More voters thought that…
Home of the web’s best political conversation As we enter the Twilight Zone of Wednesday, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, Get Ready for This thread, as it gives you an opportunity to delurk, I’m hoping there will be No Limit to the number of lurkers delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the…
The one thing I’ve most read on British politics in recent months, is that Labour should be doing better, What the below graph shows is how much of a lead in voting intentions the opposition has two years before an election with Ipsos-Mori (note the figure for Margaret Thatcher is from March 1977, a little under 26 months before an election) As we can see, generally speaking most oppositions have a lead two years before an election, the exceptions being…
Without rehearsing the discussions on PB on why some of us prefer phone pollsters, in recent days, a few posters have asked me to revive the PB polling average. I’ve slightly modified from what happened in the past. What I’ve done is average the monthly phone polls from January this year, month by month, since ending of Populus’ contract with the Times, we only have three regular monthly phone polls, The ICM for The Guardian, Ipsos-Mori’s regular political monitor, and…
Home of the web’s best political conversation A great philosopher once wrote, Drop in, relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, you should Move any mountain to start posting. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Lib Dems announce “The 2014 local and European elections are hugely important, so I’m putting one of our best…
Following on from the release of the ComRes’ European Election VI for Open Europe yesterday, today Open Europe have released the Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out at the same time. The changes are from the last ComRes online poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, The Conservatives will be worried that their polling has slipped into the mid 20s, only six points ahead of UKIP, those survation polls with the Conservatives only 2% ahead of…
In recent months, Philip Hammond has been offering his views on a range of topics, from Philip Hammond: cut welfare not troops to Gay marriage laws have created ‘real sense of anger says Philip Hammond and finally, on that perennial fault line for the Conservative party, when he said, he would vote to leave the European Union which led to a rebuke from the Prime Minister. Following those interventions, the Sunday Telegraph reported over the weekend that Members of the Prime Minister’s inner circle have…