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Polling averages and changes with the online pollsters since January

2/6/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Now that the Opinium poll for the Observer Â and the The YouGov for the Sunday Times have both been published, all the online polls for May have been published, here’s the online polling average, to go with the phone pollster analysis I did earlier on in the week. A couple of methodology notes 1) I’ve limited to one poll per pollster per month, if the pollster has conducted more than one poll during a month, I have used the last…

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Dave should remember this polling before he decides to withdraw from the debates

1/6/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

There’s a report in the Independent this morning which says Amid increasing signs that the Conservatives would pull the plug on televised leadersâ€™ debates if Mr Farage was included, the UKIP leader said he would be prepared to challenge efforts to stop him taking part in the courts. From January this year, there was polling on the debatesÂ that should make the Conservatives wary of pulling the plug on the debates. There’s a new poll out tonight by ComRes for…

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No promotion and the backbenchers are restless

1/6/2013 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Do MPs feel that theyâ€™re off the leash with no government baubles to dazzle? The stability that coalition has brought to government is in many ways a good thing, allowing ministers to settle in post, become fully acquainted with their brief, see legislation through from design to statute, and reduce uncertainty. Almost certainly, there will be just the one significant reshuffle â€“ that carried out last summer â€“ with any casual vacancies filled with minimum disruption. No action (or…

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PB Night Hawks is now open

31/5/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’re Hungry Like The Wolf for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place on Planet Earth for political betting. If you’ve always been a lurker, and have The Reflex not to post, Â Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, don’t worry, you won’t become Wild Boys or Wild Girls after posting. The…

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Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

31/5/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I expect Labour to win most seats at the next general election and for Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister. The bookies make it the most likely event but not a certainty. They price it as a 1/2 shot that Labour will return the most MPs at the next election and 4/6 that Ed Miliband makes it to 10 Downing Street. This is not a universal view by any stretch of the imagination. So what happens if Labour falls…

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If there were a Newark by-election…

31/5/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The major breaking news this lunchtime is Newark MP Patrick Mercer resigning the Tory whip following an investigation by the TelegraphÂ and Panorama. In his statement, Mercer says “I am taking legal advice about these allegations – and I have referred myself to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. My thoughts on the immediate consequences for this are at first, there’s probably one less letter demanding a leadership vote in the Tory party now which will bring a smile to David Cameron’s…

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Ipsos Mori Issues Index for May

31/5/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Ipsos-Mori issues index for May is out now, the fieldwork finished nearly a fortnight ago, on the 19th of May. To put the current month’s index into context, here is the long term trends over the last sixteen years. As Mike tweeted last night The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted & is seen as best test of the salience of issues â€” Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 30, 2013 Given the current increase in support…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 30th 2013

30/5/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Fazeley on Lichfield (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Conservative 46, Labour 10 (Conservative majority of 36) Last Ward Result (2011): Con 758, 595, 460 (60%) Lab 512 (40%) Fazeley, a small town (and not to mention, civil parish) is located on the outskirts of Tamworth and as such as been part of the electoral ding dong that has become the norm in the south of Staffordshire, north of Warwickshire and north west of Leicestershire. Back in the 1970’s,…

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