Now that the Opinium poll for the Observer Â and the The YouGov for the Sunday Times have both been published, all the online polls for May have been published, here’s the online polling average, to go with the phone pollster analysis I did earlier on in the week.
A couple of methodology notes
1) I’ve limited to one poll per pollster per month, if the pollster has conducted more than one poll during a month, I have used the last poll they carried out that month.
2) For May, I’ve excluded the much commented upon ComRes poll for Open Europe, asÂ Â It did not use ComResâ€™s normal method, excluding the reallocation of donâ€™t knows and their normal squeeze question, so it is not directly comparableÂ and used their poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror instead.
First up, how the each party averages, month by month.
Then the monthly averages comparison
Finally how the partiesâ€™ averages have changed since January.
As with the phone pollsters, UKIP is the big winner since January, up from 11.67% since January to 19% now, they would be appearing to take votes nearly equally from both the Conservatives and Labour.
The similarities with the phone pollsters continues as the Conservatives will be worried that they’re stuck in their core vote levels, whilst Labour will be worried that they’ve lost nearly 10% of their support in five months, and with UKIP now gunning for LabourÂ it could fall further, but they will be delighted that their lead over the Tories remains consistent and is only half a point down Â since January, unlike the 4% that we saw with the phone pollsters.
The Lib Dems, have slipped 1.3% from 9.50% to 8.20%, they must be hoping last night’s record low of 6% with Opinium is just a blip.
Note: Mike Smithson is currently on holiday