Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

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A guest slot from Nick Sparrow – former head of polling at ICM In a search for more accurate vote intention estimates following the debacle of 1992, one modification we made was to prompt respondents with the names of the main political parties, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat (and SNP or Plaid Cymru in relevant areas). The prompts reminded people of the existence of the Liberal Democrats – a partly forgotten alternative between elections. The prompts also may have had the…

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PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second LD-CON coalition?

PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second LD-CON coalition?

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Would the blues stomach such a demand? With the Tories making progress in the polls and the expectation of a UKIP bonus once support for the purples has eased off is leading all the parties to consider what would happen in the event of another hung parliament. A continuation, if the post election mathematics permitted, of the current Blue – Yellow agreement is going to be a lot harder for both Nick and Dave, to sell to their parties. A…

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For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

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Remember Bob Worcester’s advice – look at the shares not the lead The veteran pollster who founded the MORI company all those years ago, Bob Worcester, used to contact me in the early days of PB to give me a gentle admonishment whenever he thought I focused too much on polling leads. The important thing, he would always say, was to look at the respective party poll shares. This is what I am doing today with two charts showing the…

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NightHawks is now open

NightHawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, and if like me, have politics Always on my mind or if you have a Burning Love for betting, why not delurk tonight. We don’t want a Little Less Conversation, we want more, so please delurk The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant…

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Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead

Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead

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When I questioned Populus boss, Rick Nye, about his Friday poll he said we’d need to wait until Monday see if it was an outlier or not. Well today’s poll is just out and we’ve got our answer. The numbers are very much back in line with all the other Populus online polls since the series was started last month. As Nate Silver has observed the test of an honest pollster is whether they get the occasional outlier which should…

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What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

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Lynton Crosby said to be planning covert war against UKIP http://t.co/x5bXb2Z0Zq pic.twitter.com/2K8msVB726 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2013 Is he going to survive all the way to GE2015? For me the most interesting political story of the weekend was the Sunday Times piece, linked to in the Tweet above, about his planned covert operation to undermine UKIP. The idea is to launch what the report describes as “a “below-the-radar” operation to undermine UKIP politicians by catching them making embarrassing comments”….

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While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

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The above netted off figures are based on these more detailed numbers. There were, as it turned out only two polls overnight, and the findings that I am highlighting are the party and leader favourability figures from Survation for the Mail on Sunday. These show, I’d suggest, the biggest challenges facing both the blue and red teams just 21 months before GE2015. Labour’s weak link is its leader while the big drag on Cameron is the Conservative party itself. These…

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