Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

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New PB thread looking at betting on Lib Dem deposit losses at the 2015 GE. http://t.co/FR0XvQI0M3 pic.twitter.com/EEpQPAakBj — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013   A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds. Now in 2010, the Liberal Democrats didn’t lose any deposits, whilst the the Conservatives lost just two deposits and Labour lost five…

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Henry G Manson – On the Lobbying Bill

Henry G Manson – On the Lobbying Bill

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Henry G Manson on the lobbying bill. http://t.co/YGwgHKTdn3 Pic from http://t.co/Lghyxzdnvo pic.twitter.com/9OsvhyqtTG — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013     This Big Brother Bill Belongs to Zimbabwe Not Britain Hasty legislation usually makes for the lousy legislation. But for lousy and cynical legislation, look no further than the government’s ‘Transparency of Lobbying, Non-party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Bill’. It appears to be the latest sinister stunt from a Conservative Party looking to boost its chances in the run-up to the…

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Local By-Election Preview: August 22nd 2013

Local By-Election Preview: August 22nd 2013

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  Askern Spa on Doncaster (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 50, Con 9, Lib Dem 3, Ind 1 (Labour overall majority of 37) Ward results in last electoral cycle 2010: Con 1,502 (27%), Lab 2,756 (49%), Eng Dems 1,415 (25%) 2011: Con 831 (21%), Lab 2,205 (55%), Ind 416 (10%), Eng Dems 574 (14%) 2012: Con 954 (30%), Lab 2,269 (70%) At the start of modern electoral history, Doncaster was a fascinating place. A true Con / Lab…

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Ipsos Mori Issues Index out

Ipsos Mori Issues Index out

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The Augusut Ipsos-Mori issues index is out Public concern about the economy falls again – lowest in five years http://t.co/gnWVv2CrdI — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 22, 2013 Concern about race/immigration has now increased to 38%; its highest level since May 2010 http://t.co/nIWAVtpsOf @EconBritain: — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 22, 2013 Concern about the NHS now the highest it has been in 5 years http://t.co/ZnzXN0eyeG — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 22, 2013 Just 7% of…

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History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vote decline in 2015

History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vote decline in 2015

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In recent weeks there’s been a positivity about the Tories’ chances of winning outright in 2015, Michael Gove was reported to be convinced of that, and over at Betfair, the implied probability of a Tory majority has been increasing in recent weeks (though there has been an easing back from the recent high point) But looking at the table below, which shows the the change of the share of the vote at the election between the governing party and the…

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Which party leader will be the first to step aside?

Which party leader will be the first to step aside?

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Which leader do you think is most likely to go first? David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Nigel Farage      Up to the end of July I thought that Ed Miliband was the leader most secure in his post with Cameron and Clegg fighting it out for second place. Now that has changed quite rapidly as we saw with the “Labour Insider’s” guest slot a couple of days ago on how EdM became much more vulnerable with the exit…

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Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet

Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet

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Latest William Hill http://t.co/MbilRLa6MQ prices on the next government CON maj 3/1: CON:LD coalition 7/1 See all pic.twitter.com/z8xPUrcFsl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2013 At 8/1 the current best value GE2015 bet is the “other” option in the William Hill list above. That there’ll be no overall majority but there’ll be no coalition formed. Over the last few days we’ve seen the reports of leading CON backbenchers demanding a formal role in agreeing the next coalition if the outcome on seats…

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Boris comparing Miliband to Stalin does not fit with Cameron’s “weak, weak, weak” rhetoric

Boris comparing Miliband to Stalin does not fit with Cameron’s “weak, weak, weak” rhetoric

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Boris: Ed Miliband is just like Stalin because he "shafted" his brother http://t.co/bMpcjk5WJP — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) August 21, 2013 One of the strategies that the Tories were said to have agreed on before the recess was to stop referring to the way that Ed Miliband won the party leadership by “shafting” his brother. The reasoning was that this act, on the face of it, rather conflicts with their attempt to portray EdM as being weak and ineffectual. Well the…

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