— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2013
At 8/1 the current best value GE2015 bet is the “other” option in the William Hill list above. That there’ll be no overall majority but there’ll be no coalition formed.
Over the last few days we’ve seen the reports of leading CON backbenchers demanding a formal role in agreeing the next coalition if the outcome on seats means that that is what is required to continue in government.
Given that the LDs also have a formal process it is going to be a tougher nut to crack than last time.
One factor that could help Cameron in such a situation is that he’ll be the incumbent PM and there’s no need for him to go to the Palace provided that no other party has an overall majority. He can sit tight and try to cobble something together.
My guess is that if the CON seat total is not that far off the party’s MPs will be reluctant to go into formal coalition and try to run a minority government.
The bet also works if LAB tries to form a minority government. Maybe it could get supply and confidence deals out of other parties but there’ll be a lot of reluctance to go down the formal coalition route.
I’m on this at 12/1. The 8/1 still looks value.
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