Local By-Election Preview: September 19th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: September 19th 2013

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North Ward on Oxford (Lib Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 29, Lib Dem 13, Green 5, Ind 1 (Lab overall majority of 10) Last election in ward: 2010: Lib Dem 1,303 (45%), Con 715 (24%), Lab 489 (17%), Green 413 (14%) Candidates duly nominated: Time Bearder (Lib Dem), Sushila Dhall (Green), Louise Upton (Lab), John Walsh (Con) Oxford has been a bit of a disappointment for the Liberal Democrats over recent years, but this wasn’t always the case….

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The LDs might have left Glasgow in upbeat mood but their GE2015 prospects are dependent on UKIP continuing to prosper

The LDs might have left Glasgow in upbeat mood but their GE2015 prospects are dependent on UKIP continuing to prosper

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The big question mark over the Ashcroft polling Most delegates at this week’s Liberal Democrat conference left Glasgow in a confident mood helped by the polling of marginal constituencies funded by ex-Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft and published on Sunday. This gave the party the glimmer of hope. For in spite of their ongoing poor national polling and their leader’s dreadful ratings it appeared that they weren’t going to be annihilated on May 7th 2015 as many have predicted. What was…

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As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out

As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out

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For the second time in two months a major pollster reports that LAB and CON are level-pegging on 36% pic.twitter.com/e0p2mzUYcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2013 Some numbers to dampen LAB spirits Whenever you get a poll that is out of the ordinary you have to treat the findings with some scepticism and today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is no exception. In July ICM also had both LAB and CON on 36% a that wasn’t supported by other…

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Scottish Independence Referendum: One Year To Go

Scottish Independence Referendum: One Year To Go

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#Indyref Polling round up. New politicalbetting thread http://t.co/54IIN5PSh0 pic.twitter.com/URj333GChe — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 18, 2013 In the past few days, to coincide with today being exactly one year away from the Scottish Independence referendum, there’s been a plethora of polling on the topic. ICM for the Scotland on Sunday. This was an online poll, which gave Yes 32%, No 49%, Don’t Knows 19%. Panelbase for The Sunday Times Yes 37 (nc) No 47 (+1), Don’t Know 16 (-1). The changes are from…

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UKIP 2015 could be like Cleggasm 2010 – putting on votes where it doesn’t matter

UKIP 2015 could be like Cleggasm 2010 – putting on votes where it doesn’t matter

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If this is right it is good news for the blues The above chart seeks to graphically represent data in Denis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s The British General Election of 2010 showing the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005. In doing it gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next time. The Labour vote showed the largest range with, interestingly,…

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How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

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Intriguing new GE2015 market from PaddyPower – will the winner be the loser? See pic.twitter.com/gPiVriyCfW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 CON cannot secure most seats if it doesn’t win on votes We all know that the national vote thresholds for winning most seats and and overall majority are lower for LAB than CON. Part of the reason is unequal sized constituencies though a much bigger factor is that LAB voters are much more reluctant to turnout where the…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013

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Maybury and Sheerwater on Woking (Lib Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 21, Lib Dem 15 (Con overall majority of 6) Results of previous electoral cycle: 2010: Con 2,034 (43%), Lib Dem 1,871 (39%), Lab 525 (11%), UKIP 305 (6%) 2011: Con 1,061 (31%), Lab 1,016 (30%), Lib Dem 899 (26%), UKIP 434 (13%) 2012: Lib Dem 1,088 (34%), Lab 1,072 (34%), Con 685 (21%), UKIP 345 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Norman Johns (Lib Dem), Rashid Mohammed (Con), Stephen…

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