Intriguing new GE2015 market from PaddyPower – will the winner be the loser? See pic.twitter.com/gPiVriyCfW
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013
CON cannot secure most seats if it doesn’t win on votes
We all know that the national vote thresholds for winning most seats and and overall majority are lower for LAB than CON.
Part of the reason is unequal sized constituencies though a much bigger factor is that LAB voters are much more reluctant to turnout where the result in their constituency appears to be a foregone conclusion. The consequence of this is that turnout levels in LAB heartlands are much lower than in CON ones which impacts on the national vote totals.
- Looking at the PaddyPower there’s one overwhelmingly good value bet that stands out – the 2/1 for Conservatives to poll more votes and win more seats than Labour.
For the way the system works it is almost impossible for the Tories to come out as seat winners without winning on votes.
To illustrate the value is this price is some much better than the 6/4 best price that’s available on the Tories being the seat winner.
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