The Big Picture, Midterms, Hillary It may seem a little early to focus on the US Elections – the Midterms are still a year away and the Presidentials are not due until November 2016 – but regular political punters will know the importance of reviewing the field early. US Politics have provided us with some of our richest pickings and it has often been the case that great value has been obtained by taking an early position. I should say…
How to get publicity for a survey that supports your position. Say it's a "private poll" http://t.co/cemqGJdvT0 pic.twitter.com/KEDHGMDX8c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2013 There’s been a bit of a flurry after a piece on the Speccie Coffee House blog about the “private polling behind Labour’s energy bill swagger”. There’s nothing it seems, that journos like more than being given sight of “private polling”. Suddenly something that might be run of the mill has that extra dimension to it and…
Update : Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/ The Sun results 28th October – Con 31%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28 http://t.co/xof1uRF0TJ — YouGov (@YouGov) October 29, 2013 A year ago the party was in the 42%-44% range The two great rules of polling analysis are focus on party shares not leads and always look at the trend. This is what I’ve tried to do in the above chart focusing on the LAB share since Miliband’s…
The 5% increase in OTH in ComResIndy poll is made up of Greens up 2 to 5% and "Other others" up 3 to 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2013 By 80% to 17% those in the ComRes/Indy poll say they back the energy price frees. Only 41%, though, believe that EdM can deliver — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2013 But what’s behind the 5% increase for others? The latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy out and…
New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables here: http://t.co/yhVZrjsukR — Populus (@PopulusPolls) October 28, 2013 The chart shows the broad make-up of the current LAB vote according to today’s poll. Although there is the normal variation from pollster to pollster and poll to poll the big picture is the same – very few CON voters from last time have moved into the LAB camp. Looking back…
Our vote is not for a party or PM but for an individual MP A key aspect of UK elections that seems to get sidelined is the nature of what we are actually doing when we vote at general elections. We are not, except in the EU parliament elections, voting for a specific party and we are not voting for a Prime Minister. Our choice is for an individual to represent us at Westminster and to many voters that, as…
Hello PB’ers, This is Robert, Mike’s son and the technical administrator for the site. I’d just like to use the site as an advertisement for a business I’m involved in, Crowdscores. The idea is simple: crowdsourced football scores. Fans watching games record goals, and the like, and this means that we have the fastest football scores around. (We also have a nice line in fan generated commentary.) Currently, we do Premiership, SPL, and European games. But this idea is perfectly…
Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead at 6 Con 33% Lab 39% LD 9% UKIP 12% By 73% to 19% YouGov finds backing for special profits tax on energy firms to help elderly with their bills