New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables here: http://t.co/yhVZrjsukR
— Populus (@PopulusPolls) October 28, 2013
The chart shows the broad make-up of the current LAB vote according to today’s poll. Although there is the normal variation from pollster to pollster and poll to poll the big picture is the same – very few CON voters from last time have moved into the LAB camp.
Looking back at previous elections where the main opposition party has seen a substantial increase in support from the previous election a large component has been CON>LAB and LAB>CON switching. That is simply not happening this time and if it wasn’t for the seepage of CON votes to UKIP things would look a lot more competitive.
The consolation for for EdM in all of this is that he still retains the 2010 LD switchers.
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