UKIP down 5 to 7% The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7% CON the beneficiary — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 The ICM poll which has CON & LAB level is the best for the party since just before Osbo's March 2012 budget. Then CON was 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 Six polls in just two days
But why oh why no prompts for UKIP? Populus is back doing voting intention surveys which is good news for poll watchers. The firm built up a strong reputation with its series for the Times which was finally dropped by the paper last year. It has done a lot of work for the Conservative party and Michael Ashcroft over the years and, indeed, the former boss, Andrew Cooper, now works at Number 10. Now the firm has gone online and…
Courtesy of @MSmithsonPB this table from Electoral Calculus shows projections for UKIP seats at different levels pic.twitter.com/H2B22Nl0vY — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 14, 2013 Is it worth a punt? The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May ComRes online had them at 18%, Opinium at…
The Speccie's Fraser Nelson got this right Labour chose the right Miliband http://t.co/WouuoQJSrJ pic.twitter.com/SU9rhgmtW4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2013 After watching David Miliband’s interview on Marr this morning I set out to write a piece that Labour chose the right Miliband. The Speccie’s Fraser Nelson got there before me. This is how he concludes:- “David Miliband this morning reminded Labour (now 11 points ahead in the polls) that they chose the better of the two brothers…. Whatever Labour’s future holds,…
Today’s YouGov is now out and completes the polling picture for the weekend. The shares were CON 30, LAB 41, LD 10, UKIP 13. Labour’s 41% is the highest for eight weeks. This, and the other polls overnight, will be massively disappointing to the Tories who just a few days were feeling that they had turned the corner. They’d also had the EU referendum bill in the Commons. This chart shows all four polls overnight. Mike Smithson For the latest…
@MSmithsonPB Typical. You wait for a poll for ages, and then FOUR come along at once.. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 13, 2013 This is how each of the firms had it last time Tonight’s is a very unusual one for polls outside general election campaigns. By my reckoning all the main online firms have a got a survey coming out and we should have at least four polls. As well as the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times…
Henry G Manson on what proposed changes could mean Labour’s electoral college for determining its leader is currently divided and weighted into thirds. MPs & MEPs making up one third, party members another & affiliate members (members of trade unions and other socialist societies) the final third. What this means in practice is that the vote of an MP is worth considerably more than the individual vote of a party member and even more so an affiliate member. In 2010…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  This is The Day, you should delurk, hopefully there’ll be a Tsunami of delurkers tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) John Kampfner: “Clegg is set to be kingmaker again in 2015″ The Tories’ 35% strategy shows they know…