At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

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Those who “bought” LAB seats made a packet About once a month, it seems, like this morning I get called by a journalist who wants to know whether the general election betting prices reflect over-optimism by Tory supporters about their party’s projects. What had happened last time he asked? The theory we have heard so many times before: Those with the money to risk on the spread betting markets are probably richer and, “therefore”, Tory This prompted me to dig…

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Exactly 18 months to go before GE2015 a look at whether incumbent governments ALWAYS recover

Exactly 18 months to go before GE2015 a look at whether incumbent governments ALWAYS recover

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The evidence is mixed The above chart was compiled by taking the polling average closest to the 18 month point before election day. As can be seen the first opposition leader to break the rule was Mrs. Thatcher in 1979. Jim Callaghan’s government performed worse on election day than the polls 18 months beforehand – but then, of course, there was the “winter of discontent”. In 1983 Mrs. Thatcher saw the biggest variation on the polling average 18 months earlier…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk and Express Yourself? Delurking is the Vogue thing to do. Once you get, Into the Groove of posting, and you’ll stop feeling, Like a Virgin. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Defying Strasbourg ruling on prisoner voting rights…

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Peter the Punter on who the Republicans might choose to stop this happening – Hillary back in the Oval Office

Peter the Punter on who the Republicans might choose to stop this happening – Hillary back in the Oval Office

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Bill & Hillary in Oval Office 1998. Mike S behind Stephen Hawking Peter gives his assessments – Part 2 Last time around, the Republican [GOP] Nomination was a bean-feast for me, and for quite a few other gamblers here, I’m sure. The procedure was blissfully easy. You simply layed whoever was the latest clown to inspire the GOP base, safe in the knowledge that when push came to shove common -sense would prevail and the Party would revert to the…

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For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

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Update: Labour lead at 6 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 5th November – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26 http://t.co/yQ959vX9kf — YouGov (@YouGov) November 6, 2013 The last time that LAB had a run of more than three YouGov daily poll shares in the 40s was back in April before the local elections. So today’s third consecutive poll with the party in the 40s suggests that with this firm at least its position is stable. There…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, from London to Bombay, Stop lurking, it’s posting time. If you’re thinking You Can’t touch this site with your contributions, you’re wrong. Hopefully in the morning, I’ll be saying Oh, My Lord, look at the number of delurkers. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up…

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With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot

With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot

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GE2015 betting odds LAB maj 6/4 No majority 13/8 CON maj 3/1 pic.twitter.com/m5LBy318G0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2013 My longest-priced bet is the 12/1 I got last year with Hills for their “other” option in the GE2015 outcome market. That covers a hung parliament but with no coalitions being formed. At 9/1, in a bet placed in May, I’ve got another CON-LD coalition or, if you like, the incumbent government being returned to power. I’ve got wagers at evens with…

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3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis

3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis

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Leading on the economy isn't everything. See this from final Ipsos-MORI poll of marginals at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/W0n5k6yMyy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 @ScotMac3 The same final Ipsos-MORI GE2010 marginals poll had a 7% LAB>CON swing – enough for a majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Another contradictory “It’s the Economy” finding? I came across the above from the final Ipsos-MORI marginals poll of the GE2010 campaign while researching the broader question of how such surveys compare…

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