With a little over 389 days to go until Scottish voters decide whether to leave the Union or not. The table below shows the turnout in Scotland for a variety of elections and plebiscites, going back to 1974. Year Westminster election Referendum Holyrood election 1974 F 79.0 1974 O 74.8 1979 March 63.8 1979 May 76.8 1983 72.7 1987 75.1 1992 75.5 1997 May 71.3 1997 Sep 60.4 1999 59.1 2001 58.2 2003 49.4 2005 60.6 2007 52.1 2010 63.8…
Would stability be the prime concern if Miliband went? Ed Miliband has now been leader of the Labour Party for longer than Gordon Brown was. For the majority of that time, Labour has been comfortably ahead in the opinion polls and has made steady progress in local council seats and Westminster by-elections. Even so, doubts continue to be expressed about his leadership. Labour has not shown much ability to set a policy or media narrative since he became leader and…
New PB thread looking at betting on Lib Dem deposit losses at the 2015 GE. http://t.co/FR0XvQI0M3 pic.twitter.com/EEpQPAakBj — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013 A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds. Now in 2010, the Liberal Democrats didn’t lose any deposits, whilst the the Conservatives lost just two deposits and Labour lost five…
Henry G Manson on the lobbying bill. http://t.co/YGwgHKTdn3 Pic from http://t.co/Lghyxzdnvo pic.twitter.com/9OsvhyqtTG — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013 This Big Brother Bill Belongs to Zimbabwe Not Britain Hasty legislation usually makes for the lousy legislation. But for lousy and cynical legislation, look no further than the government’s ‘Transparency of Lobbying, Non-party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Bill’. It appears to be the latest sinister stunt from a Conservative Party looking to boost its chances in the run-up to the…
Askern Spa on Doncaster (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 50, Con 9, Lib Dem 3, Ind 1 (Labour overall majority of 37) Ward results in last electoral cycle 2010: Con 1,502 (27%), Lab 2,756 (49%), Eng Dems 1,415 (25%) 2011: Con 831 (21%), Lab 2,205 (55%), Ind 416 (10%), Eng Dems 574 (14%) 2012: Con 954 (30%), Lab 2,269 (70%) At the start of modern electoral history, Doncaster was a fascinating place. A true Con / Lab…
The Augusut Ipsos-Mori issues index is out Public concern about the economy falls again – lowest in five years http://t.co/gnWVv2CrdI — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 22, 2013 Concern about race/immigration has now increased to 38%; its highest level since May 2010 http://t.co/nIWAVtpsOf @EconBritain: — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 22, 2013 Concern about the NHS now the highest it has been in 5 years http://t.co/ZnzXN0eyeG — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 22, 2013 Just 7% of…
In recent weeks there’s been a positivity about the Tories’ chances of winning outright in 2015, Michael Gove was reported to be convinced of that, and over at Betfair, the implied probability of a Tory majority has been increasing in recent weeks (though there has been an easing back from the recent high point) But looking at the table below, which shows the the change of the share of the vote at the election between the governing party and the…
Which leader do you think is most likely to go first? David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Nigel Farage Up to the end of July I thought that Ed Miliband was the leader most secure in his post with Cameron and Clegg fighting it out for second place. Now that has changed quite rapidly as we saw with the “Labour Insider’s” guest slot a couple of days ago on how EdM became much more vulnerable with the exit…