The BBC’s Sporting Personality of the Year Election: Why I’m betting at an effective 33-1 that Andy Murray won’t do it

The BBC’s Sporting Personality of the Year Election: Why I’m betting at an effective 33-1 that Andy Murray won’t do it

Betfair makes Andy Murray a 97%+ chance to be Sports Personality of the Year Odds too tight and I'm betting against pic.twitter.com/cjO1tq4EHG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2013 The annual SPOTY event is actually about an election and, over the years, has been covered in one way or another on PB. Clearly Andy Murray after his historic Wimbledon triumph is a firm odds-one favourite. But there are still more than four months to go and things can happen. My reading is…

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My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets

My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets

All my choices are longer than evens GE2015 betting Bradford W Galloway is going to be tougher to beat than his 3/1 price suggests. Value bet pic.twitter.com/1WzICjg5Fs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2013 One of my best bets in 2012 was the 33/1 I got on George Galloway in the Bradford West by-election. My view then remains – Galloway is a formidable politician and he’s going to be a tough one to beat. 3/1 looks a good price. Link to…

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Advance notice: A PB event in Yorkshire July 2014

Advance notice: A PB event in Yorkshire July 2014

David Herdson and I plan to host a PB event in Yorkshire in July next year and we wanted to sound out opinion to see if this would be popular. I’m going to be on holiday in the county for the Tour de France which has two Yorkshire stages on July 5th and 6th. David and I thought that a gathering in the evening on July 7th or 8th might be a good idea. The suggested location would be Ilkley….

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The great GE2015 argument goes on

The great GE2015 argument goes on

The money's going on a CON majority on Betfair GE2015 outcome marker Was 20% chance 2 wks ago – now 24.4% See table pic.twitter.com/eMfzD6NQ0x — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2013 Electoral Calculus puts the chances of a CON majority at 3% http://t.co/jpwf0LYPCV Betfair punters make it 24% pic.twitter.com/rzfVy3pp9o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2013

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

A guest slot from Nick Sparrow – former head of polling at ICM In a search for more accurate vote intention estimates following the debacle of 1992, one modification we made was to prompt respondents with the names of the main political parties, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat (and SNP or Plaid Cymru in relevant areas). The prompts reminded people of the existence of the Liberal Democrats – a partly forgotten alternative between elections. The prompts also may have had the…

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PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second LD-CON coalition?

PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second LD-CON coalition?

Would the blues stomach such a demand? With the Tories making progress in the polls and the expectation of a UKIP bonus once support for the purples has eased off is leading all the parties to consider what would happen in the event of another hung parliament. A continuation, if the post election mathematics permitted, of the current Blue – Yellow agreement is going to be a lot harder for both Nick and Dave, to sell to their parties. A…

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For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

Remember Bob Worcester’s advice – look at the shares not the lead The veteran pollster who founded the MORI company all those years ago, Bob Worcester, used to contact me in the early days of PB to give me a gentle admonishment whenever he thought I focused too much on polling leads. The important thing, he would always say, was to look at the respective party poll shares. This is what I am doing today with two charts showing the…

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NightHawks is now open

NightHawks is now open

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, and if like me, have politics Always on my mind or if you have a Burning Love for betting, why not delurk tonight. We don’t want a Little Less Conversation, we want more, so please delurk The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant…

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