The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

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Electoral Calculus projection, based on current polls, makes a LAB maj a 78% chance See chart pic.twitter.com/nGlwZunxYt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2013 It’s LAB 364(+106)/CON 235(-72)/LD 23(-34)/UKIP 0/NAT 9(=) The latet monthly projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus sees a slight falling off of the projected LAB majority, The caluclation is based on applying Martin’s polling computation to his seat model and assuming a uniform national swing. The only changes in his polling average are CON+1 and UKIP-1…

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The 2010 Lib Dems who have switched to Labour are more likely to be public sector workers than any other voter group

The 2010 Lib Dems who have switched to Labour are more likely to be public sector workers than any other voter group

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On New Year’s eve I posted the first part of my look at 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour and reported polling that showed that they were more certain to vote and less likely to change their minds than other groups. This morning from page 263 of the same detailed Lord Ashcroft polling I’m highlighting the percentage working in the public sector. As can be seen from the chart there are more LD switchers to LAB amongst…

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My New Year wish: Some interesting by-elections in NON LAB seats

My New Year wish: Some interesting by-elections in NON LAB seats

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A decade of by-electons on PB In March PB will be celebrating its tenth anniversary and in looking back over the decade it’s worth reflecting how important Westminster by-elections have been to the site’s development and growth. It first began to establish itself and get noticed in July 2004 with two fiercely fought contests in the LAB seats of Leicester South which went to the Lib Dems and Birmingham Hodge Hill which brought Labour’s Liam Byrne into the Commons. Two…

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And now… our inaugural New Year’s Day Crossword

And now… our inaugural New Year’s Day Crossword

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pic.twitter.com/MuKOKDA0Cz — PolPics (@PolPics) January 1, 2014 It is with some considerable trepidation that I step into the estimable shoes of stjohn, who has provided us with splendid Christmas Day cruciverbalism for the last six years.  Fear not, stjohn is merely resting, and may well be setting more puzzles in future.  If this offering gets his famous “nod” then we may even collaborate on a jumbo sometime! Traditionally members have supplied the answers (and explanations of the wordplay) in the…

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What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

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They are more enthusiastic about EdM than existing LAB voters On one of the threads yesterday there were a number of questions asking what is known about the group of voters who could put a CON majority beyond reach – 2010 LD voters who now say they will go Labour. The problem is that almost all the polling data we have doesn’t show this segment separately – so while it is possible to extrapolate we cannot get reliable numbers. The…

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Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP

Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP

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Telegraph's front page lead pic.twitter.com/Z6MyQmSecj — PolPics (@PolPics) December 31, 2013 Can the yellows retain their 4th place? The Telegraph is leading this morning on attacks by Nick Clegg and Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander, on UKIP with them pitching the party as the only one which is enthusiastic about remaining in the EU. This is the first serious campaigning ahead of May’s elections which are now less than five months away. The Clegg argument is that a strong vote performance…

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Farage gives in to UKIP’s Facebook revolution over Syrian refugees and gives a Christmas gift to the Tories

Farage gives in to UKIP’s Facebook revolution over Syrian refugees and gives a Christmas gift to the Tories

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Now he only wants to help Christian Syrian refugees UKIP Leader @Nigel_Farage has today urged the Govt to take some responsibility in helping those Christians fleeing the civil war in Syria. — UKIP (@UKIP) December 30, 2013 Nigel Farage's position yesterday designed to defy critics who attack #UKIP as intolerant. His position today reinforces their argument. — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) December 30, 2013 So is a Muslim fleeing #Assad's murderous regime not as worthy as a Christian doing the…

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GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

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Tactical voting posters pic.twitter.com/Pi7uDkosxk — PolPics (@PolPics) December 29, 2013 The campaigns will be about best way of keeping Miliband or the Tories out A key part of the Tory effort to remain at Number 10 will be to get over to CON-UKIP defectors that in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds the best way of stopping Ed Miliband becoming next PM is by them voting with the blues rather than the purples. In a select number of seats UKIP will try…

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