Electoral Calculus projection, based on current polls, makes a LAB maj a 78% chance See chart pic.twitter.com/nGlwZunxYt
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2013
It’s LAB 364(+106)/CON 235(-72)/LD 23(-34)/UKIP 0/NAT 9(=)
The latet monthly projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus sees a slight falling off of the projected LAB majority, The caluclation is based on applying Martin’s polling computation to his seat model and assuming a uniform national swing.
The only changes in his polling average are CON+1 and UKIP-1 and that reduced the projected LAB margin by 2.
Clearly there is sixteen months still to go and the Tories will be hoping to eat more into that UKIP polling share as well as seeing more of their 2010 support moving from undecided to supporting the party again.
Labour’s share is solid although down a couple of points on a year ago.