GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

The campaigns will be about best way of keeping Miliband or the Tories out

A key part of the Tory effort to remain at Number 10 will be to get over to CON-UKIP defectors that in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds the best way of stopping Ed Miliband becoming next PM is by them voting with the blues rather than the purples.

In a select number of seats UKIP will try to show that they are the main challenger to Labour or the LDs by using the well honed approach of the Lib Dems using bar charts. Thus their second place in Eastleigh in February followed by successes in the constituency in the May local elections will help them make a strong pitch to anti LD voters.

Some of the recent constituency polling that the party has carried out will provide the core of their case.

In the key LAB-CON marginals, which are mostly seats lost at GE2010, Labour is already hard at work trying to identify 2010 LDs and to get them on board to get rid of the Tories. September’s Ashcroft marginals polling suggested that they were having a lot of success.

That Ashcroft polling also showed that in spite of the coalition the LDs were making progress with LAB voters in key LD-CON marginals where 19% indicated a readiness to vote tactically.

A lot of this for all four parties is dependent on a good ground game supported by reliable voter data.

Who’ll cone out best from all of this? Which parties have got the committed activists ready to get out knocking on doors evening after evening?

Tactical voting will dominate GE2015.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004

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