How many times will ICM, last to report CON ahead, have one in 2014? On how many occasions during 2014 will the Guardian’s monthly ICM phone poll report a CON lead 11-12 polls 9-10 polls 7-8 polls 5-6 polls 3-4 polls 1-2 polls NONE This from March 2012 was last to have CON ahead Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004 Follow @MSmithsonPB
It is all about how the questions are put There’s a new Ipsos-MORI poll reported in the Observer that suggests that more than two thirds would be ready to welcome migrants from Bulgaria and Romania provided that they “learn English, get a job, pay taxes and become part of their local community.” The poll itself has been funded by the thinktank British Future and comes only three days before the changes relating to the two countries come into effect. Clearly…
December 2012 compared with December 2013 The chart says it all. There has been almost no change in prices on the Betfair exchange on the outcome of GE2015. The prices on a CON and LAB majority have edged down a bit with no overall majority moving up a notch. The big differences between now than then have been the resilience UKIP in the polls and the fact that the election is now little more than 16 months away. Labour’s polling…
Never mind Romania and Bulgaria, the real problems come down the line When Charles de Gaulle spoke of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, he was promoting an alternative vision of the continent to the ‘ever closer union’ of the EEC: one which spanned economic systems and didn’t impinge on national interests as the EEC did (and which in his mind was incompatible with France’s position as a great power). At the time, the EEC had only six…
Don’t write off the Tories to win most votes We all know that the electoral system for Westminster seats seems to produce an outcome that is more favourable to LAB than the other parties. A big part of the reason for this is illustrated in the chart above. Labour has far fewer wasted votes. Thus looking at the first two columns – a much smaller proportion of LAB votes were “wasted” in seats where the party finished 3rd. A second…
Conservative GAINS From Labour: Leashowe and Moreton East (Wirral), Earls Barton (Wellingborough), Disraeli (Wycombe), Arbury (Nuneaton and Bedworth) From Liberal Democrat: Warden Hill (Cheltenham), Chase (Malvern Hills), Balsham (South Cambridgeshire), Sunbury East (Spelthorne), Greendown (Vale of the White Horse), Beverley (Kingston upon Thames), Maybury and Sheerwater (Woking), Comberton (South Cambridgeshire), Iver Village and Richings Park (South Buckinghamshire) From United Kingdom Independence Party: St. Mary’s (Worcestershire) From Independents: Sawton (South Cambridgeshire), Newby (Scarborough) From Others: Firthville from East Lindsey Independents (East…
UKIP, odds on favourites to win trail LAB by 7% On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you had until tonight to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey. This is surprising because EP2014 represents a massive opportunity for the new…
Times leads on YouGov poll on interest rates pic.twitter.com/Y5NsbeCb3a — PolPics (@PolPics) December 26, 2013 But is the headline just wishful thinking from the Times With the possiblility of interest rates increasing in 2014 the Times is leading on polling that suggests that more pople would benefit than would lose out. This certainly runs contrary to the general media narrative that low interests rates are a “good thing”. Maybe this is because those who work in the media are more…