LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 11.25 percent swing from the SNP

LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 11.25 percent swing from the SNP

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How Salmond was being reported a week before the Cowdenbeath by-election pic.twitter.com/2BnXnBEcAq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2014 LAB 55.8% (+9.3) SNP 28.4% (-13.2) CON 9.4% (+2.5) UKIP 3.0% L Dem 2.1% (-1.8) Victims 0.9% SDA 0.3% The campaign approach that could scupper YES Given that we are now only eight months away from the referendum in Scotland that will determine whether it stays in the UK or not the outcome of every election north of the border is being…

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By-Election Preview : January 23rd 2014

By-Election Preview : January 23rd 2014

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Motherwell North on North Lanarkshire (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 41, SNP 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,548, 941, 897 (68%) Scottish Nationalists 689, 572 (25%) Conservatives 217 (5%) Liberal Democrats 109 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Bob Burgess (Con), Jordan Linden (Scottish Nationalists), Pat O’Rouke (Lab), Neil Wilson (UKIP) For details on the background to this election, please…

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Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals

Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals

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It’s the Demography, Stupid. The next General Election is a year and a half away, and it’s going to be interesting (as all elections are for gamblers). Labour currently have a consistent polling share which suggests a Labour majority, if they maintain it. But for predictive purposes, it’s interesting to look in some detail at who will actually decide the next election – Everyone, of course, but realistically the voters in the most marginal seats. Who are they, where are…

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Portsmouth South would make an interesting by-election but Hancock, surely, will hang on in there

Portsmouth South would make an interesting by-election but Hancock, surely, will hang on in there

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Lots of talk tonight about Portsmouth South. This is what happened at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/2J7dmAzNbF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @robfordmancs LD organisation in Portsmouth S even stronger than Eastleigh. This is about data & skilled foot soldiers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Interesting – thanks Mike. Could be a crucial test of the power of local LD machines to hold back the tide, then. — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Yes, would…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, No Matter What, you should delurk. You’ll find posting, So Good,  don’t worry, I’m sure you won’t fall into the category of “You Say It Best, When You Say Nothing At All” The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Jobs figures suggest…

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The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

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What happens when you put CON 35% and LAB 35% into the Electoral Calculus seat calculator http://t.co/qP4NIfGVIM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2014 The challenge for the Tories is even bigger than the projection Everybody who follows UK politics knows that Labour can secure more seats on a given national vote share than the Tories or other parties. The above shows what happens on Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seat porjector when vote shares of CON 35/LAB 35/LD 12/UKIP 10…

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By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

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What we have is a gender and a generational divide There’s a YouGov poll in the Times this morning in which there’s the first detailed questioning on whether Lord Rennard he should be allowed to stay with the Lib Dems or leave following the allegations of sexual harassment According to the paper’s report 40% said he should stay and 39% said he should leave. Among women, the split was 43% leave with only 27% saying he should stay. Amongst Lib…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you Wannabe a poster, Stop, lurking, Spice Up Your Life by delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) 8 reasons Labour has a good chance of an overall majority 5 ways to cheer up the Tories (and kill off the ‘nasty party’) Asking Conservatives to…

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