Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

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There hasn’t been much movement between CON & LAB The Populus aggregate data for March featured in the chart above sets out clearly that the big voter shift since 2010 hasn’t changed. Ed Miliband’s LAB is very reliant on those LD voters from last time who switched in the first year of the coalition staying on board. They make up such a big part of its current supporters base and represent a shift to LAB that is equal or greater…

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Cameron’s handling of the Maria Miller affair: Across the board voters were not impressed

Cameron’s handling of the Maria Miller affair: Across the board voters were not impressed

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The above poll, by ComRes for ITV News, was taken this afternoon after the news of Maria Miller’s resignation was announced and shows what voters thought of David Cameron’s handling of the expenses issue. The numbers speak for themselves. But with all such polling the question is whether and how it will impact on voting intentions. My guess is that it will help Farage’s party. Notice how UKIP voters are the most negative to the PM. Mike Smithson Ranked in…

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New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

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Sajid Javid seems to get his breaks replacing CON women caught up in expenses rows. At GE2010 he took over Bromsgrove from Julie Kirkbride — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 The first of the CON 2010 intake into the cabinet What a morning and it’s quite hard keeping up with developments. There’s no doubt that ex-banker, Sajid Javid, is one of the most able CON MPs to be elected at GE2010 but the big surprise is the Cameron has…

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The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated

The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated

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Four out of five Tory members believe that Maria Miller should quit the Cabinet http://t.co/n4ACVYftk0 — ConservativeHome (@ConHome) April 8, 2014 Three times as many told YouGov that Gove (27%) & Clegg (28%) should "remain in role" as Maria Miller (9%) http://t.co/nlfuerftm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 At today’s PMQs Cameron will face one of the 2009 “Expenses’ Saints” In 2009 the Telegraph classified EdM as one of "The Expenses' Saints" http://t.co/9CQ46kY2Xr Most frugal in cabinet pic.twitter.com/kulVAnvKV2 — Mike…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk Tonight, as delurking will make you Smile. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A note of caution about resignation polls: while 62% of voters think Maria Miller should stand down, 52% think the same of Nick Clegg, 47% of Michael Gove and 46%…

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If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

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58% of the electorate will have local elections as well on May 22 In all the time that Tony Blair led the LAB party there was only one set of national elections where victory eluded him – the 1999 and 2004 contests for the European Parliament. He didn’t like that in the least and ahead of the 2004 contest he went to extraordinary lengths to win. First he changed what had been the standard practice and decided to put back…

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UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

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In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion. Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424 Because of…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re wanting some Happy Mondays, why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk and Step On to PB as a poster. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Can Farage convert short-term popularity into long-term gains? Most supporters of the UK Independence party say they will stay with the anti-EU party…

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