Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re wanting some Happy Mondays, why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk and Step On to PB as a poster. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Can Farage convert short-term popularity into long-term gains? Most supporters of the UK Independence party say they will stay with the anti-EU party…
Betfair #IndyRef YES price moves to 24.4% chance – the highest level yet pic.twitter.com/oTG7n9E0zq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2014 YES remains the value bet There’s been quite a rush of money going on YES for the Scottish IndyRef over the past few days so much so that the price on the Betfair exchange is quite a lot tighter. When I recomended three weeks ago that YES was the value bet the price on Betfair represented an 18% chance….
The Tory vote will be boosted by UKIP returners and fewer 2010 CON don’t knows At the end of last week Ladbrokes put up a GE2015 market on whether the Tories could come out with most votes but be behind on seats. The price when I got on at was 8/1 which seemed a good value bet. I am increasingly coming to the view that this might happen. As we get closer to May 7th 2015, election day, I think…
The budget bounce appears to be over The LDs move into double figures for the first time
Dominating the Mail on Sunday front page is report of Survation poll on Maria Miller pic.twitter.com/INWm0ltjXo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2014 The Mail on Sunday ratchets up the pressure on Maria Miller Very often the most important factor in polling is not the data but how it is used. There can be few better examples than today’s Mail on Sunday coverage of its Maria Miller polling. The paper, like the Telegraph and the Times yesterday, is after her…
Last week the Survation GE2015 gap was just 1% – now it’s 7% Survation finds 6% CON drop for EP2014 as both UKIP & LD get boosts On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate. As can be seen the firm reports big changes compared with a week ago with the Tories as the main loser. I’m…
LAB now moves into joint first place with UKIP The first poll of the night is out – a Euros survey by ComRes for the People, and there’s very little change. Both UKIP and the LDs will be disappointed not to have made any progress on the last such survey by the firm a month ago. Fieldwork for the poll took place during the day of and the day after the second debate and it would appear to have had…
One thing we should know: the debates will happen In one sense, David Cameron and Ed Miliband missed out on an opportunity by declining the invites to what turned into the Clegg-Farage Eurodebates. Not being there will not have helped either of their parties and Cameron in particular could have occupied the popular sceptical middle ground between Clegg’s uncritical Europhilia and Farage’s withdrawalism. However, that opportunity has to be set against the cost, which would have been establishing a precedent…