There hasn’t been much movement between CON & LAB
The Populus aggregate data for March featured in the chart above sets out clearly that the big voter shift since 2010 hasn’t changed. Ed Miliband’s LAB is very reliant on those LD voters from last time who switched in the first year of the coalition staying on board.
They make up such a big part of its current supporters base and represent a shift to LAB that is equal or greater than the increase in the CON vote between 1997 and 2010.
The leading psephologist, Professor John Curtice, describes them simply as Labour’s “crutch” which, of course they are. Without the LD switchers the red team would be in a sorry state with only a year to go.
The data comes from the aggregate of all Populus samples last month but it is still relevant. My own calculations based on the firm’s April polling suggest that they are still there.
This simple fact combined with the general election voting patterns that make the “system” so favourable to Labour leave the Tories with a massive challenge.