The jobs of one or more of Dave/Ed/Nigel/Nick could be on the line if the May 22nd elections don’t meet expectations

The jobs of one or more of Dave/Ed/Nigel/Nick could be on the line if the May 22nd elections don’t meet expectations

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This could be a very dangerous period for all 4 leaders On May 22nd there are the Euro Elections and as well, for 58% of voters nationwide, local elections. This will be the biggest electoral test before the May 7 2015 general election. The outcomes could impact on the futures of all four main party leaders. Parts of the Conservative party have never been reconciled to David Cameron and he’s still blamed in some quarters for failing to win a…

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Local By-Election Preview: April 10th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: April 10th 2014

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Belle Vue on Cumbria (Labour Defence) Result of last election to council (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrats 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8) Result of last election in ward (2013): Labour 760 (66%), Conservatives 393 (34%) Candidates duly nominated: Christine Bowditch (Lab), Nigel Christian (Con), John Stanyer (UKIP) Trying to get a majority on Cumbria County Council could be compared to trying to get an ice cube to remain frozen in a desert. Since…

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Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out

Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out

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Ipsos Mori sees a surge for UKIP pic.twitter.com/RrP1NjOHiC — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2014 Ipsos Mori leader ratings. pic.twitter.com/DDcAPC9wo7 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2014 UKIP gets a surge from the debates whilst the the Lib Dems take a 4 point hit. Labour will be delighted that the budget bounce other pollsters have shown hasn’t happened here as their share of the vote is up 2 and their lead has doubled from 3 to 6. Nick…

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Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

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There hasn’t been much movement between CON & LAB The Populus aggregate data for March featured in the chart above sets out clearly that the big voter shift since 2010 hasn’t changed. Ed Miliband’s LAB is very reliant on those LD voters from last time who switched in the first year of the coalition staying on board. They make up such a big part of its current supporters base and represent a shift to LAB that is equal or greater…

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Cameron’s handling of the Maria Miller affair: Across the board voters were not impressed

Cameron’s handling of the Maria Miller affair: Across the board voters were not impressed

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The above poll, by ComRes for ITV News, was taken this afternoon after the news of Maria Miller’s resignation was announced and shows what voters thought of David Cameron’s handling of the expenses issue. The numbers speak for themselves. But with all such polling the question is whether and how it will impact on voting intentions. My guess is that it will help Farage’s party. Notice how UKIP voters are the most negative to the PM. Mike Smithson Ranked in…

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New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

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Sajid Javid seems to get his breaks replacing CON women caught up in expenses rows. At GE2010 he took over Bromsgrove from Julie Kirkbride — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 The first of the CON 2010 intake into the cabinet What a morning and it’s quite hard keeping up with developments. There’s no doubt that ex-banker, Sajid Javid, is one of the most able CON MPs to be elected at GE2010 but the big surprise is the Cameron has…

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The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated

The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated

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Four out of five Tory members believe that Maria Miller should quit the Cabinet http://t.co/n4ACVYftk0 — ConservativeHome (@ConHome) April 8, 2014 Three times as many told YouGov that Gove (27%) & Clegg (28%) should "remain in role" as Maria Miller (9%) http://t.co/nlfuerftm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 At today’s PMQs Cameron will face one of the 2009 “Expenses’ Saints” In 2009 the Telegraph classified EdM as one of "The Expenses' Saints" http://t.co/9CQ46kY2Xr Most frugal in cabinet pic.twitter.com/kulVAnvKV2 — Mike…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk Tonight, as delurking will make you Smile. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A note of caution about resignation polls: while 62% of voters think Maria Miller should stand down, 52% think the same of Nick Clegg, 47% of Michael Gove and 46%…

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