"@MSmithsonPB Judging by S Times front page it looks a though its YouGov poll has UKIP in lead for Euros. pic.twitter.com/e8BAAmgzCO — Europarl2014 (@2014Europarl) April 26, 2014 LAB-2, 28, UKIP+4, 31 CON-3, 19 LD-1, 9 OTH+2, 13
LAB 34-2: CON 32+2: LD7=: UKIP 18= After yesterday’s Populus poll which had both CON and LAB on 35% each the latest online poll from Opinium for the Observer sees a change from a 6% lead to a 2% one in the past fortnight. This is all within the standard margin of error and the usual caveats apply. Opinium is unusual in that it is the only online pollster that doesn’t past vote weight or use some other mechanism to…
GE2015 could mark the end of peerage pensions for the Lib Dems If the Commons was once considered “The best Club in London†then the Lords must these days be the best retirement home. The nature of the role is such that working peerages tend to be awarded to those whose first career has either ended entirely or is at least winding down – so allowing them the time to work in the Upper House, as well as having provided…
Which firm/form of polling will get its closest? Of the 2014 polls the only ones not to be carried out online are the two from ICM which has been showing a very different picture – notably UKIP has been third in each case. TNS-BMRB operates a sort of hybrid system – interviewers hand over a computer for the interviewee to fill in. There have long been complaints from purple backers about the way the phone polls seem to mark them…
Blackwood on Caerphilly (Labour Defence) Result: Lab 620 (41% -10%), Ind 477 (32% +6%), Plaid 349 (23% +9%), Con 68 (4% -4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 143 (9%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to Independent Turnout: 24.3% Sutton on East Cambridgeshire (Conservative Defence) Result: Lib Dem 523 (51%), Con 280 (27%), UKIP 162 (16%), Lab 63 (6%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 243 (24%) Turnout: 33% Horncastle on East Lindsey (Conservative defence)…
The Ladbrokes 5/1 is the best GE2010 bet there is We all remember that moment on September 25th 2010 when Ed Miliband just squeezed past his brother, David, in the election for LAB leader. It was a huge shock for almost everybody including the Westminster village which had decided a long time earlier that the elder Miliband would be Brown’s successor. In cash terms this was my biggest political bet ever and I bought a new car on the winnings….
Blackwood on Caerphilly (Labour Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of last election in ward (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,116, 966, 946 (51%) Independents 833, 719 (26%) Plaid Cymru 352, 253, 235 (14%) Conservatives 182, 148, 144 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Farina-Childs (Plaid Cymru), Cameron Muir-Jones (Con), Allan Rees (Lab), Keith Smallman (Ind) When Caerphilly was created it seems to be another example of…
William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015 Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB