The Tories still very strong favourite to hold Newark. Ukip now out to 5/1 pic.twitter.com/8cY37u9Vvs
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2014
Will this survive the first poll?
So far I have not had confirmation that a Newark poll is in the pipeline but it is hard to envisage such a key contest taking place without a survey.
Maybe we’ll have to wait until after the May 22nd elections.
Until then punters are flying blind. Will UKIPâ€™s Roger Helmer split the right of centre vote and allow LAB in?
We don’t know but some data showing the three parties were close together would electrify the campaign.
My only prediction is that the LDs are going to lose a lot of their 20% last time to LAB and the Tories will bleed some support to Ukip.
I still think that LAB at 4/1 is the value bet.