Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014

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Now, I know there is the small matter of a massive football competition happening in Brazil over the next few weeks which will (according to Bloomberg television) attract some $5 billion worth of bets during the competition, but let’s not forget that with the Liberal Democrats on 6% of the vote in some polls and UKIP’s leader declaring over £200,000 worth of gifts in the last ten years, British politics and it’s elections will still carry on regardless so with…

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Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

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What’s going on in LD-held seats is critical The 6% share for the Lib Dems in today’s YouGov/Sun poll is the lowest the firm has reported since it began its online operation in 2001. The party was just 1% ahead of the Greens. While Opinium, which generally has the worse figures for the yellows has had them at this level before the latest finding will add to the discomfort in the party coming as it does after the appalling performance…

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Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

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There are two issues with this poll which make it stand it: the closeness of the outcome compared with other recent surveys and the Cameron question. The main finding with changes on last time:- YES 39 (+2) NO 44 (-3) DK 17 (NC) Without DKs YES 47 NO 53 This is one of the closest margins yet in any poll and is very much against the run of other recent polling. It will certainly give the YES campaign a boost…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re experiencing a Night Fever, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. Whether you’re a poster or whether you’re a lurker, why not post on Nighthawks tonight. It’ll be a Tragedy if some lurkers don’t delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Fabian research shows how “Ukip effect” threatens Labour –…

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David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

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May 11th 2010 Those who invite or accept defeat for some greater end are usually deluded and counter-productive One pre-election tradition that has been little honoured so far is hearing the assertion it will be a ‘good one to lose’.  Invariably, those who put that argument forward fall into one or both of two overlapping groups: those who spy monsters down the road which they believe will slay the election winners, providing the opportunity for their preferred party to win…

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Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

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All of us who follow the polls closely know that some firms will be particularly beneficial to one party or another and generally produce some of the worst figures for another party. Now as part of a methodology change the “Polling Observatory” at Manchester University in their latest report has sought to measure this as part of a big change in how they average the polls. A spin off from this is that they’ve sought to estimate the “house effect”…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you Just Can’t Get Enough of PB, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk,  you might Enjoy The Silence of lurking, but you’ll enjoy posting even more. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Antifrank: The latest election round: what have we learned about UKIP? Part…

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What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO

What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO

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Herald Scotland rhttp://goo.gl/O93cQ0 reporting one of the biggest political bets ever #IndyRef. £400k on NO at 1/4. pic.twitter.com/ixat3WawwD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2014 Suddenly the high rollers are putting big money on NO The punter, said to be a middle aged man, placed a bet via a banker’s draft 1/4 on an IndyRef NO at a William Hill’s betting shop in SW London. He stands to make a profit of £100,000 if that’s how the referendum goes. Hill…

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