If Michael Gove is thinking of the leadership then he’s miles behind Boris in the latest ComRes Favourability Index

If Michael Gove is thinking of the leadership then he’s miles behind Boris in the latest ComRes Favourability Index

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And Farage sees the biggest negative change since April Of all the different forms of leadership questions the one I prefer is whether poll respondents have a favourable or unfavourable view of different figures. For while it’s possible to think that X is doing his/her job “badly” (YouGov) or the respondent is “dissatisfied” (Ipsos-MORI) you can still have a favourable view of them. That, I’d suggest, is more likely to be a better guide to voting intentions. So I applauded…

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Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

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And ICM finds that the vote’s dividing 42% of Scottish families Two new referendum polls this weekend see the gap between YES and NO getting narrower. ICM for Scotland on Sunday has, after the exclusion of DKs, YES up 3 to 45% with NO down 3 to 55%. The Panelbase poll for YES Scotland, reported earlier, had a 4% gap. A feature of both polls is that women are becoming less hostile to the notion of independence. They are still…

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The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

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Panelbase IndyRef poll for YES Scotland has the gap down to just 4 percent Three days after it was reported that a man in SW London backed an IndyRef NO with £400,000 at 1/4 there’s a new poll which has the gap at just 4% It was commissioned by Yes Scotland. The pollster is the Northumberland-based, Pabelbase, which in the past has produced the best figures for YES. Tonight’s poll is broadly in line with the recent Survation survey that…

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Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

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ComRes also repeated its regular “Favourability Index.asking “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following.” The figures show the percentage replying “favourable”, and the net score, “favourable” minus “unfavourable”: Prince William 68% +59 The Queen 63% +51 Prince Charles 43% +22 Boris Johnson 41% +13 David Cameron 28% -18 Nigel Farage 26% -18 William Hague 25% -10 George Osborne 19% -25 Ed Miliband 19% -30 Theresa May 16% -22 Nick Clegg 13% -41…

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Multiculturalism was buried this week, un-noticed

Multiculturalism was buried this week, un-noticed

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Via BBC politics. Gove and May's show of unity http://t.co/sZ802GkeQE … pic.twitter.com/IZrrhvoodQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 9, 2014 The reaction to Trojan Horse has major implications for social policy Most of the reaction and comment to the fallout from the Birmingham schools Trojan Horse affair has centred on the spat between Theresa May and Michael Gove (and their respective departments), on what ‘British values’ means, and on to what extent – if they can be defined – they should be…

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If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

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10.5 mths to go & @LadPolitics http://t.co/GmnRBnYZFl makes it CON most votes LAB most seats http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh pic.twitter.com/22KRvn3NWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2014 Maybe this explains the disparity between constituency & GB markets The standard assumption is that this is mostly down to the boundaries is wrong. Yes LAB does get some benefit but the key factor is different turnout levels in CON and LAB seats. Shadsy of Ladbrokes gets this right in in his blog:- “..the main factor…

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Local By-Election Results: June 12th 2014

Local By-Election Results: June 12th 2014

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Sleaford, Quarrington and Mareham (Ind Defence)< Result: Lincolnshire Independent 527 (45%), Conservative 477 (40%), Independent 178 (15%) Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Independent with a majority of 50 (5%) Sleaford, Westholme (Ind Defence) Result: Lincolnshire Independent 342 (69%), Conservative 119 (24% +3% on 2011), Labour 38 (8%) Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Independent with a majority of 223 (45%) Collington on Rother (Ind Defence) Result: Independent 570 (42%), Conservative 378 (28%), United Kingdom Independence Party 311 (23%), Labour 102 (8%) Independent HOLD…

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How British politics might have been different If Gordon Banks had not had a bug before the 1970 West Germany match

How British politics might have been different If Gordon Banks had not had a bug before the 1970 West Germany match

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Check out this great counter-factual by UKPR’s Anthony Wells The opening of the 2014 World Cup is a good peg to hang one of the great counter-factuals of politics and football written and created by YouGov’s Anthony Wells and the man who runs UKPollingReport. The basic premise is that the outcome of the 1970 General Election, when the Tories were returned to power, could have been different if England had not been knocked out in the Quarter Final by West…

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