Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re Waiting for Tonight to delurk, then delurk. After you delurk, you’ll be Feelin’ So Good. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Antifrank looks at the Conservative Battleground. Shadsy: Tory Leadership Contests – a betting history Politicians may slug it out, but their distance from the electorate is…

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LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

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LAB had 5% lead with @IpsosMORI with all expressing voting preference but down to 3% with those certain to vote See pic.twitter.com/5GpkJphM65 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 Nick Clegg sees best net leader satisfaction change from Ipsos-MORI though starts from low base EdM & Dave both down pic.twitter.com/30U3DbJPIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 REVISION 49% of those in the @IpsosMORI sample say EdM should be replaced before GE15. Amongst LAB voters the figure was 43% — Mike Smithson…

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Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

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One thing’s for sure – NO is not a certainty There’s a new YouGov IndyRef poll out overnght which has, after the exclusion of the DKs, NO with a comfortable 20% lead. This is exactly in line with the average of YouGov IndyRef polls so far this year. This latest survey is in marked contrast to the Panelbase, Survation, and ICM polls of recent days which have all shown a narrowing of the gap. Above is a chart based on…

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The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

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Labour retakes the lead, whilst the Lib Dems hit a record equalling low with ICM. As we can see, there’s not a lot for the three established Westminster parties to cheer about in this poll, whilst Labour will delighted to regain the lead with the Gold Standard of British Polling, both their lead and their share of the vote, isn’t that impressive, by contrast, in June 2009, David Cameron’s Tories were polling 39% and had a 12% lead over Labour….

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The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

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Lord Ashcroft May 2014 marginals polling Some MPs will get a bonus but the overall position is mixed One of the great hopes for the Tories is that those MPs who were first elected in 2010 will perform better than the national swing because of what’s become known as “first time incumbency bonus”. To try to test this in his battleground polling Lord Ashcroft asks a two-stage voting intention question. The first is the standard one while the second asks…

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This week’s Ashcroft phone poll sees LAB move to 6%

This week’s Ashcroft phone poll sees LAB move to 6%

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UKIP down 4 points in a fortnight The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and the numbers have a more familiar ring to them. UKIP is down from the dizzy heights of 19% that they chalked up in the immediate aftermath of their EP14 success. The LDs are up from the miserable 6% they were on at the end of May. But it’s the gap between LAB and CON that really matters and although the blues are…

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The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingham gather momentum

The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingham gather momentum

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The Nottingham Post story on the LD leadership http://t.co/kILKA2OtAH. See pic.twitter.com/Y5715iNlaT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 16, 2014 At the moment the pressure is very limited So far according to Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, just five of the party’s branches have had formal meetings to discuss the leadership and only two, Nottingham and Ribble Valley, have voted in favour of a contest. The three others – Cambridge, Southwark and Salisbury – voted against. In Cambridge and Southwark the LDs currently…

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