Today’s YouGov has CON 32/LAB 38/LD 8/UKIP 14 The chart above is based on the YouGov monthly averages for the past year plus, for June, an average of the past 15 polls. As I’ve written many times before there are so many YouGov polls (five or six a week) that looking at averages is the best way of observing the trend. Thankfully the firm is making the calculations and is now publishing them. I used to attempt this task myself!…
Quite simply David M showed he was crap at politics I was very taken by this comment from Edmund in Tokyo on the previous thread on why David Miliband would not have been the winner that his protagonists say he would:- 1) David Miliband wouldn’t have been able to bury the Iraq episode like Ed has. It would have been a serious ongoing problem, even worse as Iraq falls apart, and crippled his ability to win over the 2010 LibDems…
The World Cup will all be forgotten by September And so England will head home from the World Cup after the first round for the first time since 1958. The result may be disappointing for England fans even if the standard of play – bar a few lapses – was generally better than expected. Lapses, however, count dearly at this level. How the results are seen in other parts of the UK is another matter. In large parts of Wales…
The Flying Duck Ilkley As has been mentioned several times on the site the next PB get-together will be at the Flying Duck pub in the heart of Ilkley in Yorkshire. It’s in the town centre not far from the station. At that time of the evening on a Monday night it should be reasonably quiet. At the moment I have no idea who many might be attending – it could be half a dozen or several times that. The…
You can make a strong case for Red, Blue or Yellow Back at GE2010 we had many arguments and discussions about what would happen in Watford which LAB was defending. Jack W, for instance, argued strongly that this was a Lib Dem gain while I put my money on the Tories. You can see the result by clicking the GE10 tab on the interactive chart. My reasoning was that the overall tide was to the Tories and that the blues…
Soham South on East Cambridgeshire (Independent Defence) Result of council at last election (2011): Conservative 25, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4 (Conservative overall majority of 11) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 745, 578, 547 Independent 598, 590 Liberal Democrats 397, 300 Labour 335 Candidates duly nominated: Daniel Divine (UKIP), Gerard Hobbs (Ind), Fiona Ross (Lab), Hamish Ross (Con), Charles Warner (Lib Dem), Geoffrey Woolard (Ind) East Cambridgeshire is another example of what has happened…
Further detail from @LordAshcroft mega-poll of LD-CON marginals pic.twitter.com/pRyRtkw7K8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 What @LordAshcroft poll didn't do was name the candidates/incumbents which is likely to have had an impact. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 @LordAshcroft poll data on level of campaigning activity by parties in the 17 seats. pic.twitter.com/fx0tjJuHvp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 @LordAshcroft Eastleigh poll has the LDs holding in with 12% margin LD 39 CON 27 UKIP 22 This had been key UKIP target…
Why LAB strategists won’t be too worried about EdM’s batch of poor personal numbers One of the big factors that makes analysing this election so different from the past is the amount of data in the public domain from which we can measure significant sub-groups – like those 2010 LD voters who have switched to LAB. As I’ve repeatedly said the LD>LAB switchers represents a bigger shift than the entire increase in the CON vote from 1997 to 2010 and…